Dollar pressure persists as risk-off sentiment lingers after Wall Street’s tech-led selloff and weak Chinese data. DXY trades near the 99 handle, while EUR and GBP hold firm above recent breakout levels and USD/JPY stays pinned around 154.50. Gold consolidates just below recent highs near $4 200, and oil rebounds toward $60 after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and ongoing Russian supply concerns.
Previous Session Recap
• DXY slipped back toward 99.10–99.30, staying close to two-week lows as traders faded the recent bounce in the dollar.
• EUR/USD extended its recovery, closing near 1.1635 after briefly testing the 1.1650 area on broad dollar softness.
• GBP/USD climbed toward 1.3180–1.3200, supported by softer USD and despite weak UK growth signals and looming BoE easing expectations.
• USD/JPY eased slightly, hovering around 154.5 as safe-haven flows favored the yen and Swiss franc while keeping the broader dollar on the back foot.
• Gold briefly traded above $4 200 before slipping back toward $4 190 as profit-taking kicked in after a strong week of gains.
• WTI crude oil rebounded toward $59.50–$60.00 after a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian Black Sea oil facility reignited supply concerns.
• US indices posted sharp losses: the Dow fell about 1.65%, the S&P 500 around 1.66%, and the Nasdaq more than 2.25% as tech led the selloff; futures are extending the decline in early Friday trade.
Today’s Focus
Markets continue to digest the end of the prolonged US government shutdown, but a “data fog” remains as key October releases, including CPI, face delays or uncertainties. Attention turns to follow-through from China’s weaker-than-expected industrial output and retail sales, alongside Fed speakers later in the day, as investors reassess rate-cut probabilities into year-end. With Wall Street volatility elevated and global equities under pressure, FX traders stay alert to further risk-off moves that could favor safe havens over high beta currencies.
Forex & Commodities Outlook
DXY: 99.15 ( +0.10% ) 🔼 – Support 99.00; resistance 99.50–99.80.
EUR/USD: 1.1635 ( +0.25% ) 🔼 – Support firm above 1.1580; resistance 1.1680.
GBP/USD: 1.3185 ( +0.20% ) 🔼 – Support 1.3110; resistance 1.3220.
USD/JPY: 154.60 ( –0.10% ) 🔽 – Support 154.00; resistance 155.20.
XAU/USD: $4 190 ( –0.20% ) 🔽 – Range 4 150–4 250.
WTI Crude: $59.70 ( +1.70% ) 🔼 – Support 58.50; resistance 60.80.
S&P 500 / NASDAQ: Futures slightly lower ( –0.3–0.5% ) as markets extend Thursday’s risk-off move.
Key Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.00 | 99.50 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1580 | 1.1680 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3110 | 1.3220 |
| USD/JPY | 154.00 | 155.20 |
| Gold | 4 150 | 4 250 |
| WTI | 58.50 | 60.80 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Risk sentiment has turned defensive again after the sharp equity selloff and weaker Chinese data, leaving the dollar index heavy but not collapsing as safe-haven demand rotates into select currencies and gold. Until the delayed US data calendar clears and Fed messaging becomes less ambiguous, range-trading strategies and tight risk management remain key, with traders watching whether EUR/USD and GBP/USD can hold above recent breakout levels while USD/JPY stays anchored below 155.
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