9 March 2026
Forex Market Sentiment
Risk-Off | Bullish USD
Global markets opened the week in a defensive tone as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to dominate macro sentiment. Energy prices surged following fears of potential supply disruptions, pushing crude oil sharply higher and reigniting global inflation concerns.
The US Dollar is broadly supported as investors rotate toward cash and safe-haven assets. Rising oil prices are also pressuring global equities and risk-sensitive currencies.
Gold remains elevated amid continued geopolitical uncertainty, while commodity-linked currencies show mixed performance due to the inflationary implications of higher energy prices.
Previous Session Recap
Friday’s session closed with markets increasingly focused on geopolitical risk and energy prices.
| Asset | Friday Market Behaviour |
|---|---|
| US Dollar | Strengthened across most major pairs as investors reduced risk exposure |
| EUR/USD | Failed to maintain upside momentum and moved lower into the weekly close |
| GBP/USD | Came under pressure following USD demand and weaker risk appetite |
| USD/JPY | Continued trending higher as yield differentials remain supportive |
| Equities | Global indices closed lower as rising oil prices weighed on sentiment |
| Gold | Advanced as investors sought protection against geopolitical risk |
| Crude Oil | Spiked sharply as supply disruption fears intensified |
Overall, markets ended the week in risk-off positioning, setting the tone for Monday’s session.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Theme | Key Development |
|---|---|
| Energy Markets | Oil prices surged amid escalating Middle East tensions and supply concerns |
| China Policy Outlook | China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5% – 5%, signaling continued policy support |
| Safe Haven Demand | Demand for USD and gold remains elevated as geopolitical risk persists |
| FX Volatility | Yen weakness continues despite risk-off conditions due to policy divergence |
Focus of the Day
While geopolitical developments remain the dominant driver of markets, traders will monitor incoming macro data and central bank commentary throughout the week for confirmation of global growth trends.
Higher energy prices could complicate inflation outlooks and influence expectations regarding the timing of future rate cuts across major central banks.
Major Currency Outlooks
EUR/USD — Bearish
EUR/USD remains under pressure as USD demand strengthens amid global risk aversion.
| Metric | Level |
|---|---|
| Current Price | ~1.156 |
| Resistance | 1.1650 |
| Support | 1.1480 |
| Bias | Bearish |
A sustained break below 1.1500 could accelerate downside momentum.
GBP/USD — Bearish
Sterling continues to face headwinds as global risk sentiment deteriorates.
| Metric | Level |
|---|---|
| Current Price | ~1.332 |
| Resistance | 1.3400 |
| Support | 1.3250 |
| Bias | Bearish |
Failure to reclaim 1.3400 may expose the pair to further declines.
USD/JPY — Bullish
USD/JPY remains supported by wide interest rate differentials and persistent Yen weakness.
| Metric | Level |
|---|---|
| Current Price | ~158.50 |
| Resistance | 160.00 |
| Support | 156.80 |
| Bias | Bullish |
Intervention risk from Japanese authorities increases if the pair moves toward 160.00.
Forex Commodities Watch
| Asset | Current Price | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | ~5095 | Safe-haven demand and geopolitical uncertainty |
| WTI Crude Oil | ~116 | Middle East tensions and supply disruption concerns |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Pair | Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1400 | 1.1480 | 1.1550 | 1.1650 | 1.1720 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3180 | 1.3250 | 1.3320 | 1.3400 | 1.3480 |
| USD/JPY | 154.50 | 156.80 | 158.50 | 160.00 | 162.00 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6760 | 0.6820 | 0.6880 | 0.6960 | 0.7040 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3450 | 1.3520 | 1.3600 | 1.3680 | 1.3750 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8700 | 0.8780 | 0.8850 | 0.8930 | 0.9000 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6020 | 0.6080 | 0.6150 | 0.6230 | 0.6300 |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8480 | 0.8540 | 0.8600 | 0.8670 | 0.8730 |
| Gold (XAU) | 4950 | 5020 | 5090 | 5200 | 5320 |
| WTI Oil | 105 | 110 | 116 | 122 | 128 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Markets are beginning the week with a clear risk-off bias, driven primarily by geopolitical developments and the sharp rise in energy prices.
The US Dollar remains well supported, while risk-sensitive currencies and equities face downside pressure.
Traders should monitor:
- geopolitical headlines
- energy market volatility
- shifts in central bank expectations
These factors are likely to remain the primary drivers of market direction in the near term.
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