Date:
10 March 2026
Market Sentiment
Cautious Optimism / Rebound
The market is experiencing a tentative recovery following extreme volatility. Sentiment has shifted from “Panic” to “Cautious Optimism” as oil prices retreat from multi-year highs and geopolitical rhetoric hints at potential de-escalation in the Middle East.
Safe-haven demand for the USD has cooled slightly, allowing major peers to rebound.
Previous Session Recap
Monday saw dramatic “washout” price action.
Brent Crude surged toward $114 before a sharp reversal late in the session.
Global equities, particularly in Asia (Nikkei -7%), suffered heavy losses initially but staged a late-session recovery.
The USD reached a multi-week peak against the Yen and Euro before profit-taking set in as U.S. President Trump signaled a possible end to the Iran hostilities.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
Rupee Rebounds
The INR rose from all-time lows of 92.21 to 92.14 as oil prices cooled.
Trump Peace Signals
Markets reacted to headlines suggesting U.S. military goals in Iran are nearing completion, sparking a risk-on relief rally.
German Trade Surplus Widens
Germany reported an unexpected trade surplus of €21.2 billion for January, supporting a EUR/USD recovery above the 1.1600 handle.
G7 Strategic Reserves
G7 nations considered utilizing strategic oil reserves to combat energy price spikes, successfully driving Brent back below $95.
Focus of the Day
The primary focus remains on Geopolitical De-escalation and its impact on the “inflation of trade.”
Traders are watching if the pullback in energy prices is sustainable, as this will dictate whether central banks (Fed, ECB) maintain their hawkish stance or return to planned rate cuts.
Key Economic Events
| Time (ET) | Currency | Event | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
| 05:00 AM | USD | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Feb) | Medium | 99.8 | 99.3 |
| 07:15 AM | USD | ADP Employment Change Weekly (High Freq) | Medium | — | 12.80K |
| 07:55 AM | USD | Redbook (YoY) | Low | — | 7.0% |
| 09:00 AM | USD | Existing Home Sales (Feb) | High | 3.89M | 3.91M |
| 11:00 AM | OIL | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook | Medium | — | — |
| 12:00 PM | USD | 3-Year Note Auction | Medium | — | 3.518% |
| 03:30 PM | OIL | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | Medium | — | 5.60M |
| Tentative | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | Medium | — | — |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
EUR/USD
Bullish bias intraday. After bouncing off the 100-day EMA, the pair is eyeing 1.1680. Resistance sits at 1.1720, with support firm at 1.1600.
GBP/USD
Neutral to Bullish. Tracking broader USD weakness; support at 1.2850 is holding, targeting 1.3010 if risk sentiment continues to improve.
USD/JPY
Toppish. Struggling near the ¥159.50 resistance zone. A break below ¥157.00 could signal a deeper correction toward ¥156.40.
Commodities Watch
Gold
Stabilizing around $5,150. While safe-haven demand has eased, central bank buying and inflation concerns keep the floor high.
Crude Oil (WTI)
High volatility. Currently trading near $89.00 after dropping from $119 highs. Key support at $81.25, Resistance at $101.00.
Key Technical Zones
| Currency Pair | Current Price | Pivot Point | Support 1 | Support 2 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1652 | 1.1610 | 1.1570 | 1.1510 | 1.1685 | 1.1730 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3372 | 1.3340 | 1.3283 | 1.3210 | 1.3410 | 1.3480 |
| USD/JPY | 158.32 | 158.80 | 157.60 | 156.80 | 159.45 | 160.20 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7042 | 0.7000 | 0.6956 | 0.6910 | 0.7085 | 0.7120 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3572 | 1.3610 | 1.3526 | 1.3485 | 1.3680 | 1.3740 |
| USD/CHF | 0.7776 | 0.7810 | 0.7740 | 0.7680 | 0.7865 | 0.7920 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5916 | 0.5890 | 0.5849 | 0.5800 | 0.5960 | 0.6015 |
| EUR/JPY | 183.24 | 183.10 | 182.40 | 181.65 | 184.40 | 185.20 |
| GBP/JPY | 211.72 | 211.45 | 210.80 | 209.50 | 212.60 | 213.80 |
Trader’s Takeaway
The “oil shock” peak appears to be behind us for now, but the market remains on a knife-edge.
- Look for “Buy the Dip” opportunities in major pairs (EUR, GBP) against the USD as long as de-escalation headlines continue. However, keep stops tight as any renewed strikes in the Strait of Hormuz will instantly return the market to a “Flight to Safety” mode.
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