Date: 29 April 2026
Market Sentiment
Cautiously risk-neutral to mildly risk-off.
- USD supported by Fed event risk + elevated real yields
- Commodities mixed: oil supported (supply shock), metals pressured
- Safe-haven demand (USD, JPY) remains firm into FOMC
👉 Expect event-driven volatility, not trend continuation
Previous Session Recap
- USD held firm ahead of Fed decision
- AUD, NZD traded mixed with downside pressure
- Gold declined ~1.8% as yields stayed elevated
- Oil remained elevated near $97 on supply disruption
- USD/JPY hovered near 160 resistance zone
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Federal Reserve expected to hold rates (3.50–3.75%)
- Australian CPI expected to spike to 4.7% YoY
- Strait of Hormuz disruption impacting ~20% of oil supply
- Rising real yields pressuring gold and silver
- BoJ tightening expectations gradually supporting JPY positioning
Focus of the Day
FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Speech (Primary Catalyst)
Secondary:
- Australian CPI (AUD volatility trigger)
- Positioning ahead of US GDP & Core PCE
Key Economic Events (29.04.2026)
| Time (UTC) | Event | Impact | Market Context & Expectations |
| 01:30 | Australia CPI (Q1) | High | Actual: 4.6% (vs 3.7% prev). Headline inflation spiked due to energy costs from the Middle East conflict. Increases odds of an RBA hike in May. |
| 18:00 | FOMC Rate Decision | Extreme | Consensus is a hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets are focused on whether the “wait-and-see” stance shifts to hawkish due to rising oil prices. |
| 18:30 | Powell Press Conf. | Extreme | Likely Jerome Powell’s final press conference before Kevin Warsh takes over. Expected to defend the Fed’s independence amidst political pressure. |
| Late US | GDP/PCE Prep | Medium | “The calm before the storm.” Massive positioning expected as traders brace for tomorrow’s Q1 GDP and Core PCE (April 30). |
Major Currency Outlooks
EUR/USD
Neutral bias
- Range-bound into Fed
- Key: 1.1670 – 1.1750
GBP/USD
Neutral
- Sensitive to USD flows
- Holding above 1.3465
USD/JPY
Neutral → Bullish
- Strong resistance: 160.00
- Fed tone decisive
AUD/USD
Event-driven
- CPI critical trigger
- Upside if inflation surprise
NZD/USD
Bearish bias
- Weak vs USD strength
- Vulnerable below 0.5860
USD/CAD
Bullish
- USD strength > oil support
- Range-bound with upside risk
USD/CHF
Bullish USD bias
- Risk sentiment + yield advantage
Commodities Watch
- Gold (XAUUSD): Bearish below 4600 (yield pressure)
- Silver (XAGUSD): Weak momentum continuation
- WTI Oil: Bullish (geopolitical supply shock)
Key Technical Zones
| Pair | Support (S1) | Pivot Point (P) | Resistance (R1) |
| EUR/USD | 1.1685 | 1.1715 | 1.1760 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3340 | 1.3410 | 1.3485 |
| USD/JPY | 159.20 | 160.15 | 161.40 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6620 | 0.6705 | 0.6780 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3550 | 1.3640 | 1.3710 |
| Commodity | Support (S1) | Pivot Point (P) | Resistance (R1) |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,585.00 | $4,600.00 | $4,635.00 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | $31.10 | $32.45 | $33.80 |
| WTI Crude Oil | $98.50 | $100.20 | $102.80 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $110.20 | $112.00 | $114.50 |
| Copper | $4.45 | $4.58 | $4.72 |
Trader’s Takeaway
- Today is not a typical trading day — it’s event-driven
- FOMC will define direction, not technicals alone
- Expect:
- 50–150+ pip FX swings
- Fakeouts before real moves
- Best approach:
- Trade post-news confirmation, not pre-positioning
- Focus on key levels + reaction, not prediction
👉 Bias summary:
- USD: Supported unless Fed turns dovish
- Gold: Vulnerable
- Oil: Structurally bullish
- AUD/NZD: Event-sensitive
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