Date: 14.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Markets are balancing three dominant drivers: escalating US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, today’s US inflation report, and renewed Fed tightening expectations. Brent has reached a one-month high near $85.50, reinforcing inflation concerns and supporting the dollar, while equities remain exposed to rising energy costs. The yen remains near multi-decade lows, keeping intervention risk elevated. Gold has recovered above $4,030 after Monday’s sharp decline, but its direction depends on Treasury yields, CPI, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street weakened as Gulf conflict lifted oil over 9%. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, Nasdaq 1.6%, while gold fell around 3%.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Headline | Impact |
|---|---|
| Brent nears $85.50 | USD support |
| China trade beats forecasts | AUD support |
| Yen holds near 162.30 | Intervention risk |
Forex Focus of the Day
US CPI is today’s main catalyst. Core inflation above 0.2% monthly could strengthen July rate-hike expectations and lift the dollar.
Key Economic Events
| GMT | Event |
| 12:30 | US June CPI |
| 14:00 | Warsh testimony |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Instrument | Outlook |
| EUR/USD | 1.1392, vulnerable below 1.1400 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3358, gains remain constrained |
| USD/JPY | 162.30, bullish but intervention-sensitive |
| AUD/USD | 0.6934, supported by China data |
Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Outlook |
| Gold | $4,031, caught between safety demand and rate risk |
| Brent | $85.50, supported by Hormuz disruption fears |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
| EUR/USD | 1.1350 | 1.1400 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3340 | 1.3400 |
| USD/JPY | 161.75 | 162.70 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6930 | 0.6940 |
| Gold | $4,000 | $4,054 |
| Brent | $83.30 | $85.65 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Avoid chasing pre-CPI moves. Higher oil may support the dollar, while softer inflation could reverse USD pairs and gold.
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