Date: 15.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite is cautiously positive after June US inflation surprised lower, weakening the dollar and reducing expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate increase. However, the move remains fragile because Brent is holding near one-month highs as renewed US-Iran tensions threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. China’s Q2 growth slowdown to 4.3% adds another restraint, particularly for the Australian dollar and commodity-linked assets. Today’s direction should depend mainly on US producer inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony, and whether oil extends its geopolitical premium.
Previous Session Recap
The dollar index lost 0.35%, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.14, and gold rose more than 2% after soft US CPI. US equities advanced, while Brent extended its weekly rally.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Driver | Market impact |
|---|---|
| Softer US CPI | USD pressured |
| China GDP at 4.3% | AUD capped |
| Iran blockade risk | Oil supported |
Forex Focus of the Day
The dollar remains central. Soft PPI could reinforce EUR/USD and GBP/USD gains, while firm producer inflation or hawkish Warsh remarks may revive USD demand.
Key Economic Events
| Time GMT | Event |
|---|---|
| 12:30 | US PPI, Empire State |
| 14:00 | Warsh Senate testimony |
| 14:30 | EIA crude inventories |
| 18:00 | Fed Beige Book |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Outlook |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Supported above 1.1400 |
| GBP/USD | Positive above 1.3360 |
| USD/JPY | Elevated, intervention risk |
| AUD/USD | Testing 0.7000 resistance |
Commodities Watch
| Asset | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Gold | Consolidating above 4,000 |
| Brent | Geopolitics supports 85.00 |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1400 | 1.1460 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3360 | 1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 161.60 | 162.80 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6950 | 0.7000 |
| Gold | 4,000 | 4,065 |
| Brent | 84.50 | 87.00 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Avoid chasing the initial dollar move before PPI. Watch oil closely, as another surge could rebuild inflation expectations and reverse risk sentiment.
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