Date: 20.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite is improving after the U.S. Treasury expanded planned buybacks of long-dated debt, pulling yields away from multi-year highs and weakening the dollar to a three-month low. Asian equities rebounded sharply, led by South Korean semiconductor shares, although Federal Reserve minutes retained a hawkish inflation warning. Brent near $93 remains the principal counterweight because persistent Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens another inflation impulse. Today’s U.S. jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed survey will test whether lower yields can continue supporting currencies, metals, and equities without reviving rate-increase expectations.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street ended a three-session slide Wednesday after the Treasury’s buyback announcement calmed bond markets. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq each gained about 0.2%. The 30-year yield fell toward 5.19%, while EUR/USD rose 0.78% and the dollar index dropped 0.72%. Brent settled 0.66% higher at $91.62 as Middle East tensions persisted.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar index fell to 98.85 as Treasury buybacks reduced long-end yield pressure.
- Fed minutes showed several officials prepared to raise rates if inflation failed to improve.
- The KOSPI surged 5.9% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rebounded sharply.
- Brent approached $93 amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and restricted Hormuz traffic.
- RBI intervention and hawkish policy minutes supported India’s rupee.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD is the central focus after reaching 1.1680 as Treasury action removed an important dollar support. U.S. labor and manufacturing data now determine whether the breakout extends. Softer releases could expose 1.1750, while resilient data and renewed Fed tightening bets may return the pair toward 1.1600.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:15 GMT | China Loan Prime Rates | CNY | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. Leading Economic Index | USD | Medium |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Natural Gas Storage | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1680 | Bullish | Dollar weakness |
| GBP/USD | 1.3610 | Bullish | Yield relief |
| USD/JPY | 158.54 | Bearish, volatile | Lower U.S. yields |
| USD/CHF | 0.7992 | Bearish | Dollar selloff |
| USD/CAD | 1.3796 | Bearish | Firm oil; softer dollar |
| AUD/USD | 0.7117 | Bullish | Asian equity rebound |
| EUR/JPY | 185.17 | Slightly bullish | Euro momentum |
| USD/INR | 95.61 | Bearish, volatile | RBI intervention |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $85.52 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz disruption |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $92.88 | Bullish, volatile | Stalled Iran talks |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.80 | Neutral | Storage data |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,488.19 | Neutral, bullish | Lower yields; profit-taking |
| Copper | $6.47 | Bearish, volatile | LME squeeze normalization |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,852.58 | Bullish, volatile | Chip rebound; buybacks |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 66,216.79 | Bullish | Lower bond yields |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 | 1.1750 | Support preserves breakout |
| GBP/USD | 1.3540 | 1.3680 | Data tests momentum |
| USD/JPY | 157.50 | 160.00 | Below resistance favors sellers |
| USD/CHF | 0.7930 | 0.8060 | Resistance caps recovery |
| USD/CAD | 1.3720 | 1.3880 | Oil guides breakout |
| AUD/USD | 0.7050 | 0.7180 | Risk appetite supports dips |
| EUR/JPY | 184.00 | 186.50 | Support maintains upside |
| USD/INR | 95.20 | 96.00 | RBI may cap resistance |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $83.50 | $88.00 | Supply risk supports price |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $90.50 | $95.00 | Headlines control breakout |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.70 | $2.90 | Storage sets direction |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,400 | $4,525 | Support keeps recovery intact |
| Copper | $6.40 | $6.55 | Squeeze risk sustains volatility |
| KOSPI | 6,650 | 7,000 | Hold support consolidates rebound |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,300 | 67,000 | Resistance confirms recovery |
Trader’s Takeaway
The main risk is renewed inflation pressure from oil after Treasury action eased financial conditions. U.S. claims and manufacturing data are today’s key test. EUR/USD above 1.1600, gold above $4,400, and KOSPI above 6,650 support the rebound; failures at those levels would favor defensive positioning.
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