Date: 21.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautious as the brief relief from U.S. Treasury bond buybacks fades and long-term yields return toward multi-year highs. The dollar remains near a three-month low, supporting the euro and precious metals, but Brent above $93 keeps inflation risk elevated. Strong Japanese and eurozone business surveys contrast with Thursday’s Wall Street decline and Walmart’s earnings-driven selloff. Traders now face a dense PMI calendar, with U.S. activity data potentially determining whether resilient growth reinforces the dollar or increases expectations that the Federal Reserve may eventually tighten again.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street fell Thursday as Treasury yields rebounded and Walmart’s sales miss challenged consumer confidence. The S&P 500 lost 0.9%, the Nasdaq dropped 1%, and the Dow declined 1.3%. Walmart sank about 9%, while WTI and Brent gained more than 2%. Initial jobless claims slipped, indicating a still-stable labor market.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar index held near 98.80 despite renewed gains in Treasury yields.
- Eurozone composite PMI rose to 52.1, its strongest reading since November.
- Japan’s manufacturing PMI reached 55.1, while core inflation accelerated to 1.8%.
- Brent touched $94.71 as tougher U.S. sanctions reduced hopes for an Iran agreement.
- Gold and silver advanced as dollar-debasement concerns supported scarce assets.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD is the primary focus after reaching 1.1692 and receiving support from stronger eurozone PMIs. The U.S. flash surveys at 13:45 GMT offer the next test. A soft U.S. reading could open 1.1750, while resilient activity and higher yields may trigger a pullback toward 1.1630.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 GMT | Japan Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs | JPY | High |
| 07:30 GMT | Germany Flash PMIs | EUR | High |
| 08:00 GMT | Eurozone Flash PMIs | EUR | High |
| 08:30 GMT | UK Flash PMIs | GBP | High |
| 13:45 GMT | U.S. Flash PMIs | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1692 | Bullish | Strong eurozone PMIs |
| GBP/USD | 1.3640 | Bullish | Dollar weakness |
| USD/JPY | 158.83 | Bearish, volatile | BOJ expectations |
| USD/CHF | 0.8004 | Bearish | Franc demand |
| USD/CAD | 1.3774 | Bearish | Higher oil prices |
| AUD/USD | 0.7130 | Bullish | Broad dollar pressure |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8567 | Neutral | Competing PMI signals |
| EUR/JPY | 185.66 | Bullish, volatile | Euro growth; BOJ risk |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $86.76 | Bullish, volatile | Regional supply constraints |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $93.44 | Bullish, volatile | Iran sanctions; Hormuz |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.78 | Neutral | Production and weather |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,537.41 | Bullish | Weak dollar; fiscal concern |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $68.93 | Bullish, volatile | Precious-metals momentum |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 66,080.25 | Bearish | High yields; weekly decline |
| KOSPI | 6,914.09 | Bullish, volatile | Semiconductor rebound |
| Walmart | $104.03 | Bearish, volatile | Sales miss; consumer concern |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1630 | 1.1750 | PMIs determine breakout |
| GBP/USD | 1.3570 | 1.3700 | Support preserves momentum |
| USD/JPY | 157.80 | 160.00 | Below resistance favors yen |
| USD/CHF | 0.7940 | 0.8060 | Resistance caps recovery |
| USD/CAD | 1.3700 | 1.3850 | Oil guides direction |
| AUD/USD | 0.7060 | 0.7180 | Support maintains upside |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8520 | 0.8610 | Range break needs divergence |
| EUR/JPY | 184.50 | 187.00 | BOJ risk limits gains |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $84.50 | $89.00 | Supply risk supports dips |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $91.00 | $96.00 | Sanctions sustain premium |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.68 | $2.88 | Range awaits catalyst |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,450 | $4,600 | Dollar weakness favors breakout |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $67.00 | $71.00 | Support sustains momentum |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,000 | 67,000 | Resistance blocks recovery |
| KOSPI | 6,750 | 7,050 | Rebound holds above support |
| Walmart | $100 | $110 | Sales reaction remains dominant |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk remains an oil-and-yield inflation shock, while U.S. PMIs provide Friday’s key catalyst. EUR/USD above 1.1630, gold above $4,450, and Brent above $91 support current trends. Breaks below those levels would favor dollar stabilization and a more defensive close.
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