Date: 24.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite is defensive as Asian technology shares retreat, U.S.-Canada trade tensions intensify, and markets await details of new U.S. sanctions on Iran. The dollar remains near multi-month lows after expanded Treasury bond buybacks revived concern about U.S. debt and long-duration policy intervention, supporting the euro, Australian dollar, and gold. Oil is correcting after last week’s surge, but threats to Gulf exports preserve an inflationary risk premium. With Monday’s data calendar light, tariff headlines, the sanctions announcement, and bond yields should dominate price action.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street rebounded Friday but still posted weekly losses. The Dow rose 0.54%, the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, and the Nasdaq added 0.22%. Strong U.S. services activity briefly supported the dollar, while elevated government yields, geopolitical tension, and pressure on technology shares kept the broader weekly tone cautious.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The Canadian dollar weakened after U.S.-Canada talks collapsed and reciprocal 50% tariffs took effect.
- Gold reached a three-month high as Treasury buybacks and debt concerns pressured the dollar.
- WTI and Brent retreated before the U.S. sanctions announcement, following gains of more than 6% last week.
- South Korea’s KOSPI fell sharply as Samsung Electronics dropped on shareholder-return concerns.
- Hong Kong shares slid as Alibaba plunged after announcing a discounted $10.2 billion share offering.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/CAD leads Monday’s Forex agenda. Bilateral tariffs directly weaken Canada’s growth outlook, while softer crude removes a usual source of support for the loonie. Broad dollar weakness limits the pair’s upside. Holding above 1.3750 would preserve pressure toward 1.3900; a retreat below support would signal that U.S. debt concerns are again outweighing Canada-specific risk.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 GMT | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | USD | Medium |
| 18:00 GMT | U.S. Iran Sanctions Announcement | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1680 | Bullish | Broad dollar weakness |
| GBP/USD | 1.3650 | Bullish | U.S. debt concern |
| USD/JPY | 159.02 | Neutral, volatile | Bond yields; BOJ expectations |
| USD/CHF | 0.7992 | Bearish | Dollar pressure; haven demand |
| USD/CAD | 1.3807 | Bullish, volatile | Tariffs; softer oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7166 | Bullish | Three-month-high momentum |
| CAD/JPY | 115.17 | Bearish, volatile | Canada tariffs; yen resilience |
| USD/INR | 95.67 | Neutral, volatile | Oil pressure; RBI intervention |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $85.20 | Bearish, volatile | Profit-taking before sanctions |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $91.01 | Bearish, volatile | Iran policy uncertainty |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.80 | Neutral | Heat demand versus high output |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,643.63 | Bullish | Weak dollar; debt anxiety |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $69.03 | Bullish, volatile | Precious-metals demand |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,664.36 | Bearish, volatile | Samsung decline; AI caution |
| HK50, Hang Seng | 25,465.23 | Bearish, volatile | Alibaba offering; tech weakness |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 | 1.1750 | Support preserves dollar-downtrend |
| GBP/USD | 1.3570 | 1.3720 | Hold support favors extension |
| USD/JPY | 158.00 | 160.00 | Yields determine range break |
| USD/CHF | 0.7930 | 0.8060 | Resistance caps recovery |
| USD/CAD | 1.3750 | 1.3900 | Tariff headlines guide breakout |
| AUD/USD | 0.7100 | 0.7220 | Momentum positive above support |
| CAD/JPY | 114.50 | 116.00 | Resistance favors sellers |
| USD/INR | 95.40 | 95.85 | RBI activity may cap upside |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $83.50 | $88.00 | Sanctions decide next break |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $89.50 | $94.00 | Gulf risk supports dips |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.70 | $2.90 | Weather controls range |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,580 | $4,700 | Dollar weakness sustains breakout |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $67.50 | $71.00 | Support preserves momentum |
| KOSPI | 6,500 | 6,900 | Recovery requires resistance break |
| HK50, Hang Seng | 25,000 | 26,000 | Tech pressure persists below resistance |
Trader’s Takeaway
Tariff escalation and Iran sanctions are Monday’s dominant risks, while the Chicago Fed index provides the scheduled data test. USD/CAD above 1.3750, gold above $4,580, and Brent above $89.50 would preserve the current trade, debt, and geopolitical themes. KOSPI and HK50 recoveries above resistance would be needed to signal a meaningful improvement in risk appetite.
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