'/%3E%3C/svg%3E){kind=small}
'/%3E%3Cpath%20fill='%23b2b2b2'%20d='M241%20382q0%2016%2017%2026%2017%2011%2042%2011t42-11q16-11%2017-26V269H241'/%3E%3Cpath%20fill='%239f7e00'%20d='M241%20379q0%2014%208%2023%209%209%2021%209%2014%200%2021-9%209-9%209-23V269h-59'/%3E%3Cpath%20d='M241%20339v-70h59v110q0%2014-9%2023l-6%205v-68h-15v72q-8%200-14-4v-68zm59%2040c0%2022%2015%2032%2029%2032%2021%200%2030-18%2030-32v-40h-59'/%3E%3Cpath%20fill='%239f7e00'%20d='M266%20277v5h2v12h-3v-5h2v-5h-9v5h2v5h-4v9h3v18h-5v10h34v-10h-5v-18h3v-9h-4v-5h2v-5h-9v5h2v5h-3v-12h2v-5zm42%20101q0%2010%206%2017%206%206%2015%207%2010-1%2016-7%206-7%206-17v-29h-43'/%3E%3Ccircle%20fill='%230044ad'%20cx='329.5'%20cy='372'%20r='6'/%3E%3Cellipse%20fill='%230044ad'%20cx='300'%20cy='340'%20rx='16'%20ry='21'/%3E%3C/svg%3E){kind=small}
'/%3E%3C/g%3E%3Cuse%20href='%23c'%20transform='matrix(-1%200%200%201%20720%200)'/%3E%3C/svg%3E){kind=small}
Date: 28.10.2026
Market Sentiment
Central-bank decisions dominate Wednesday’s outlook after New Zealand delivered an early surprise. The RBNZ held rates at 2.75%, triggering sharp kiwi selling. Renewed oil-supply concerns are also challenging the inflation outlook, while technology earnings remain another potential source of volatility. The key question is whether policy guidance reinforces dollar strength or gives competing currencies room to recover. Today’s Bank of Canada announcement and Federal Reserve decision make early directional moves vulnerable to reversal.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street advanced on Tuesday. The S&P 500 gained 0.60% to 7,722.60, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.18% to 26,477.81. WTI settled at $99.90 and Brent at $113.88 before Wednesday’s renewed supply concerns lifted both benchmarks.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The RBNZ unexpectedly held its policy rate at 2.75%, sending NZD/USD as low as 0.5583.
- Australia’s quarterly inflation accelerated to 1.3%, keeping attention on the RBA’s next decision.
- The dollar remained firm before the Federal Reserve announcement.
- A Houthi claim of a strike on a Saudi refinery revived oil-supply concerns. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the strike.
- The Bank of Canada decision creates a separate policy catalyst for the Canadian dollar.
Forex Focus of the Day
NZD/USD takes priority following the RBNZ surprise. The pair’s indicative reference is near 0.5601, with the session low around 0.5583 providing the immediate downside test. Sustained trading below that low would reinforce selling pressure. A recovery above 0.5630 would ease the immediate bearish picture, with 0.5644 the next resistance reference. The Fed decision could either deepen the policy-driven decline or trigger a recovery.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | Australia Q3 CPI, released | AUD | High |
| 01:00 | RBNZ Rate Decision, released | NZD | High |
| 13:45 | Bank of Canada Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report | CAD | High |
| 14:30 | Bank of Canada Press Conference | CAD | High |
| 14:30 | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | USD | High |
| 18:00 | Federal Reserve Rate Decision | USD | High |
| 18:30 | Federal Reserve Press Conference | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
Indicative Wednesday references. Biases describe conditional intraday scenarios.
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1124 | Cautious | Fed guidance and nearby support |
| GBP/USD | 1.3295 | Bearish below 1.3343 | Intraday resistance caps recovery |
| USD/JPY | 157.95 | Bullish above 157.19 | Fed catalyst and resistance near 158.07 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4063 | Event-sensitive | Bank of Canada and Fed decisions |
| AUD/USD | 0.7035 | Bullish above 0.7011 | Inflation backdrop and improving momentum |
| NZD/USD | 0.5601 | Bearish | RBNZ surprise and revised rate expectations |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8367 | Recovery within downtrend | Support at 0.8354; weak daily momentum |
| USD/CHF | 0.8304 | Bullish above 0.8292 | Positive trend, with momentum slowing |
Energy & Commodities Watch
Oil is quoted in dollars per barrel, metals per ounce, and U.S. natural gas per million British thermal units.
| Instrument | Reference Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $101.52 | Bullish | Renewed supply premium |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $115.24 | Bullish, volatile | Saudi refinery concerns |
| NGAS, November Futures (NGX26) | $2.718, delayed | Recovery, volatile | Expiry-day rebound; watching the $2.708–$2.736 session range |
| Gold | $4,055.59 | Cautious | Interest-rate expectations limit upside |
| Silver | $54.04 | Bearish | Weak momentum below $55.09 |
Natural gas’s November contract expires today. Its delayed quote is above Tuesday’s $2.697 settlement, following a 3.7% advance in that session. Slightly cooler forecasts supported the rebound, although the broader weather outlook remained mild. Prices and levels shown here apply specifically to the November contract.
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
Index prices below are Tuesday’s cash-market closes.
| Instrument | Reference Close | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA500, S&P 500 | 7,722.60 | Bullish, event-sensitive | Follow-through after Tuesday’s advance |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 63,268.37 | Recovery | Rebound faces resistance near 65,000 |
Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after Wednesday’s U.S. close will test confidence in AI-related spending and returns. Their guidance could influence technology shares beyond the immediate earnings reaction.
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support / Downside Reference | Resistance / Upside Reference | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1117 | 1.1179 | Reclaim resistance to improve recovery prospects |
| GBP/USD | 1.3277 | 1.3343 | Support loss exposes 1.3261 |
| USD/JPY | 157.19 | 158.07 | Break higher brings 158.30 into focus |
| USD/CAD | 1.4031 | 1.4082 | Policy announcements could break the range |
| AUD/USD | 0.7011 | 0.7059 | Hold support to preserve recovery |
| NZD/USD | 0.5583 | 0.5630 | Session-low break reinforces selling pressure |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8354 | 0.8375 | Above support favors an intraday rebound |
| USD/CHF | 0.8292 | 0.8337 | Support must hold to retain bullish bias |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $99.09 | $102.40 | Break higher brings $103.27 into focus |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $113.88, prior settlement | $116.91 | Holding above prior settlement preserves the rebound |
| NGAS, November Futures (NGX26) | $2.708, session low; $2.697, prior settlement | $2.736, session high | A break above $2.736 extends the session rebound; below $2.708 brings $2.697 into focus |
| Gold | $3,991.32 | $4,062.44 | Reclaim resistance to ease downside pressure |
| Silver | $52.51 | $55.09 | Below resistance maintains bearish pressure |
| USA500, S&P 500 | 7,704.23 | 7,781.23 | Hold support to sustain Tuesday’s advance |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 62,000 | 65,000 | Reclaim resistance to strengthen the recovery |
Trader’s Takeaway
Today’s main risk is a rapid reversal around policy announcements. NZD/USD’s 0.5583 session low, USD/CAD’s 1.4031–1.4082 zone, and gold’s $4,062.44 resistance provide clear reference points. A hawkish Fed message would challenge currency and metals recoveries; a softer message could trigger reversals. Oil remains independently vulnerable to supply headlines, while natural gas traders face additional expiry-day volatility.
About LMFX
LMFX is a trusted global brokerage providing access to Forex, commodities, indices, and precious metals. Known for its fast execution and competitive spreads, LMFX offers the MT4 trading platform, flexible account types, and a variety of funding options. With dedicated customer support and a focus on transparency and reliability, LMFX serves traders at all experience levels worldwide.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendation. Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs involves risk and may not be suitable for all traders. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please read LMFX’s full ‘Risk Disclosure Statement’. Always trade responsibly.
