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Date: 29.10.2026
Market Sentiment
Thursday’s markets face overlapping tests from U.S. inflation, European monetary policy, and technology earnings. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates leaves incoming data central to expectations for December. Meanwhile, disappointing elements of Alphabet’s results have challenged enthusiasm for artificial intelligence spending, with South Korean chip shares contributing to regional volatility. Oil has eased as investors assess prospects for Middle East diplomacy, although supply risks remain elevated. The resulting tone is cautious: currencies, precious metals, and technology benchmarks could reverse sharply as today’s major announcements arrive.
Previous Session Recap
Global equities advanced Wednesday, with MSCI’s world index gaining 0.38%. WTI settled at $102.78, while Brent finished at $115.32. Sterling recovered earlier losses following Britain’s budget. December natural gas settled at $3.032.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The Fed held its benchmark range at 3.75%–4.00%, keeping inflation in focus.
- Alphabet’s spending and cash-flow concerns weighed on technology sentiment.
- Middle East diplomatic prospects tempered oil’s supply premium.
- The ECB decision puts euro crosses at the center of today’s currency calendar.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD faces competing policy and data catalysts. U.S. growth and inflation figures arrive before the ECB announcement, creating scope for successive reversals. Holding 1.1107 would preserve an intraday recovery attempt; a sustained move above 1.1193 would strengthen it. EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY offer additional measures of the euro’s response.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 GMT | UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit | GBP | Medium |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. GDP, PCE inflation, jobless claims | USD | High |
| 13:15 GMT | ECB rate decision | EUR | High |
| 13:45 GMT | ECB press conference | EUR | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA natural gas storage | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
Prices are indicative morning snapshots. Biases describe conditional intraday scenarios.
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1140 | Recovery | ECB and U.S. inflation |
| GBP/USD | 1.3310 | Cautiously bullish | Budget aftermath; U.S. data |
| USD/JPY | 157.86 | Bullish | Yield outlook; approaching BOJ decision |
| USD/CAD | 1.3993 | Bearish | Policy repricing and oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7041 | Fragile recovery | Inflation backdrop; weaker equities |
| NZD/USD | 0.5615 | Cautious | RBNZ aftermath; dollar demand |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8362 | Bearish | ECB versus post-budget sterling |
| EUR/JPY | 175.86 | Fragile recovery | ECB guidance; BOJ positioning |
Energy & Commodities Watch
Oil references are indicative market quotes; gas uses December Henry Hub futures. Oil prices are in dollars per barrel, natural gas per MMBtu, and metals per troy ounce.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $101.17 | Supported | Supply risk versus diplomacy |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $109.31 | Supported | Elevated geopolitical premium |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.030 | Range-bound | December contract; storage report |
| Gold | $4,030.46 | Cautious | Inflation and rate expectations |
| Silver | $52.74 | Bearish | Precious-metals selling pressure |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
Asian snapshots show divergent earnings reactions. KOSPI’s earlier decline exceeded 2%, making Korea a priority despite subsequent stabilization. These are external market benchmarks.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 5,880.25 | Defensive | Samsung weakness; chip concentration |
| Nikkei 225 | 64,073.17 | Resilient | Advantest outlook offsets technology pressure |
Key Market Technical Zones
Rounded chart levels and observed session boundaries provide conditional references, rather than guaranteed turning points.
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1107 | 1.1193 | Hold support for recovery |
| GBP/USD | 1.3266 | 1.3372 | Resistance break strengthens rebound |
| USD/JPY | 157.55 | 158.82 | Support preserves upward bias |
| USD/CAD | 1.3943 | 1.4001 | Below resistance favors weakness |
| AUD/USD | 0.7038 | 0.7089 | Support loss weakens recovery |
| NZD/USD | 0.5599 | 0.5655 | Breakout needed for conviction |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8354 | 0.8375 | Support break extends pressure |
| EUR/JPY | 175.79 | 176.84 | Support must hold |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $99.09 | $102.40 | Resistance break reinforces strength |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $108.40 | $112.50 | Support sustains bullish structure |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.005 | $3.037 | Session-range break sets direction |
| Gold | $3,995 | $4,104 | Resistance reclaim improves momentum |
| Silver | $52.51 | $55.09 | Support loss extends weakness |
| KOSPI | 5,880 | 6,100 | Reclaim resistance for stabilization |
| Nikkei 225 | 62,000 | 65,000 | Resistance reclaim strengthens recovery |
Trader’s Takeaway
Overlapping announcements create reversal risk. U.S. inflation at 12:30 GMT and subsequent ECB guidance dominate. EUR/USD above 1.1193 would confirm improving recovery momentum, while silver below $52.51 would reinforce defensive conditions.
About LMFX
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Disclaimer
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