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Date: 03.11.2026
Market Sentiment
Australia’s split rate increase, renewed technology selling, and U.S. election uncertainty dominate Tuesday’s outlook. The Australian dollar weakened despite tighter policy, illustrating how guidance can outweigh an expected decision. Meanwhile, semiconductor losses in South Korea have revived concerns about technology investment returns and market concentration. Oil is stabilizing after Monday’s sharp retreat, leaving currencies sensitive to competing inflation and growth signals. U.S. job openings provide the next scheduled test for interest-rate expectations. With political headlines adding uncertainty and Japanese cash markets closed, early moves may struggle to develop into durable trends without confirmation from yields and broader market participation.
Previous Session Recap
Monday’s technology recovery faded, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing near 25,164. Brent fell more than 7%, easing inflation concerns. Front-month gold futures gained 1.83%, while silver futures rose 3.31%.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The RBA raised rates to 4.85%, with three members favoring no change.
- AUD/USD weakened as the split decision encouraged expectations of a pause.
- Korean semiconductor selling renewed pressure on Asian risk sentiment.
- U.S. elections and Middle East developments remain major headline risks.
Forex Focus of the Day
AUD/USD leads after the RBA’s expected increase failed to support the currency. Trading around 0.6979 places the 0.6974 session reference in focus; reclaiming 0.7007 would improve stabilization prospects. AUD/NZD offers a policy comparison before New Zealand’s labor report, while EUR/AUD reflects Australian weakness against a comparatively steady euro. A sustained recovery requires stronger price action beyond the initial post-decision reaction.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03:30 GMT | RBA decision, released | AUD | High |
| 04:30 GMT | RBA press conference, concluded | AUD | High |
| 15:00 GMT | U.S. JOLTS job openings; factory orders | USD | High |
| 21:30 GMT | API crude inventories | USD | Medium |
| 21:45 GMT | New Zealand employment; unemployment | NZD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1185 | Consolidating | Dollar drift; election uncertainty |
| GBP/USD | 1.3414 | Cautiously firm | UK activity; BoE positioning |
| USD/JPY | 157.92 | Range-bound | Yields; Japanese market holiday |
| USD/CAD | 1.3980 | Supported | Oil retreat; U.S. data |
| AUD/USD | 0.6979 | Bearish | RBA split; pause expectations |
| NZD/USD | 0.5617 | Event-sensitive | Labor report; regional sentiment |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2430 | Bearish | RBA reaction; NZ employment |
| EUR/AUD | 1.6026 | Firm | Australian dollar weakness |
Energy & Commodities Watch
External benchmarks use dollars per barrel for oil, per MMBtu for U.S. gas, and per troy ounce for metals. Gas references represent December futures.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $96.59 | Stabilizing | Recovery after sharp selling |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $105.48 | Volatile rebound | Diplomacy versus supply risks |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.875 | Consolidating | December contract; modest rebound |
| Gold | $3,935.80 | Corrective | Monday’s recovery loses momentum |
| Silver | $49.78 | Bearish intraday | Renewed metals selling |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
Korea takes priority after a roughly 4% decline. Taiwan also weakened, while Hong Kong was modestly firmer and Australian shares initially advanced. Japan’s cash market is closed. U.S. technology weakness provides the broader spillover risk.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 5,626.08 | Defensive | Semiconductor selling; concentration risk |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,164.36 | Bearish | Monday close; technology pressure |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1150 | 1.1200 | Break higher improves recovery |
| GBP/USD | 1.3400 | 1.3448 | Support preserves constructive bias |
| USD/JPY | 157.55 | 158.13 | Range break clarifies direction |
| USD/CAD | 1.3976 | 1.4000 | Resistance break reinforces strength |
| AUD/USD | 0.6974 | 0.7007 | Resistance reclaim aids stabilization |
| NZD/USD | 0.5600 | 0.5640 | Employment may break range |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2400 | 1.2460 | Support loss extends weakness |
| EUR/AUD | 1.6000 | 1.6100 | Hold support for continuation |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $95.16 | $98 | Support preserves stabilization attempt |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $104.27 | $107 | Resistance break strengthens rebound |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.853 | $2.890 | Observed-range break sets direction |
| Gold | $3,900 | $3,975 | Reclaim resistance for recovery |
| Silver | $49 | $50.90 | Resistance caps recovery attempts |
| KOSPI | 5,600 | 5,730 | Reclaim resistance for stabilization |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,000 | 25,437 | Support loss reinforces weakness |
Trader’s Takeaway
Election uncertainty and technology selling dominate. Watch JOLTS at 15:00 GMT and AUD/USD’s 0.6974 support. Recovery above 0.7007 would ease immediate selling pressure.
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