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Date: 10.11.2026
Market Sentiment
Wall Street’s strongest session since April set the tone for Tuesday, with falling oil prices helping stocks recover from last week’s selloff. The rally extended into Asian chip shares, while the dollar steadied ahead of U.S. inflation data. President Donald Trump said he would hold off on further strikes against Iran for now, although the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. Markets still price roughly an 85% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate increase. A hotter core inflation reading could lift Treasury yields and test whether the equity rally can withstand tighter rate expectations.
Previous Session Recap
The S&P 500 rose 2.35% Monday as all 11 sectors advanced. The Dow gained 2.15%, the Nasdaq Composite added 2.74%, and the Russell 2000 rose 3.15%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained nearly 7% even as Nvidia fell 4.2%. Brent settled 5.85% lower.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- China’s October exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier and imports climbed 41.6%. The monthly trade surplus narrowed.
- Australia’s NAB business confidence slipped to minus 15 in October as forward orders weakened.
- South Korea’s KOSPI closed up 4.39%. The exchange briefly paused program buying after the opening surge.
- Taiwan gained 2.52%, extending Monday’s rebound, while Japan’s Nikkei rose roughly 2.5% in early trading.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD is near 1.1220 ahead of the 13:30 GMT report. Consensus points to monthly gains of 0.3% in headline CPI and 0.2% in core CPI. A hotter core reading could revive dollar demand through higher yields. A cooler print could bring 1.1230 resistance into play.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 GMT | NAB business confidence, released | AUD | Medium |
| 02:30 GMT | China trade balance, released | CNY | High |
| 08:30 GMT | Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaks | GBP | Medium |
| 09:00 GMT | Fed Governor Waller speaks | USD | Medium |
| 13:15 GMT | ADP weekly employment estimate | USD | Medium |
| 13:30 GMT | U.S. October headline and core CPI | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1219 | Range-bound | U.S. inflation sets direction |
| GBP/USD | 1.3441 | Neutral | Recent BoE hike supports sterling |
| USD/JPY | 158.07 | Neutral | U.S. yield risk and Japanese intervention sensitivity |
| USD/CAD | 1.4126 | Firm | Softer crude weighs on the Canadian dollar |
| AUD/USD | 0.6918 | Mixed | Weak business confidence tempers equity boost |
| NZD/USD | 0.5634 | Firm | Risk appetite supports the kiwi |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2283 | Soft | Australian business confidence weakens |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8348 | Neutral | Breeden speaks after last week’s BoE hike |
Energy & Commodities Watch
Energy prices reference December WTI, January Brent and December Henry Hub futures. Gold and silver are spot prices per troy ounce.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $86.07 | Bearish | Pause in strikes lowers supply risk premium |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $91.88 | Bearish | Hopes for Iran talks pressure prices |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.243 | Firm | Futures build on Monday’s rally |
| Gold | $4,124.42 | Soft | Profit-taking ahead of CPI |
| Silver | $53.22 | Soft | Metals ease before inflation data |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
USA500 reflects Monday’s S&P 500 cash close. KOSPI reflects Tuesday’s cash close. European equity futures pointed higher early Tuesday after gains in Germany and France on Monday. CoreWeave reports after the U.S. close, giving investors a fresh look at AI infrastructure spending.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA500 (S&P 500 cash) | 7,549.94 | Constructive | Broad rally as crude drops |
| KOSPI (cash) | 5,239.13 | Firm | Chip rebound and renewed foreign buying |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1190 | 1.1230 | Below support favors the dollar |
| GBP/USD | 1.3400 | 1.3480 | Above resistance extends gains |
| USD/JPY | 157.85 | 158.25 | Range break sets direction |
| USD/CAD | 1.4090 | 1.4160 | Above resistance extends gains |
| AUD/USD | 0.6890 | 0.6950 | Holding support preserves the rebound |
| NZD/USD | 0.5600 | 0.5650 | Above resistance extends the rebound |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2270 | 1.2300 | Below support extends losses |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8335 | 0.8360 | Breeden’s remarks could break the range |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $85.50 | $87.00 | Below support extends slide |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $91.00 | $93.00 | Above resistance eases pressure |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.20 | $3.30 | Above resistance extends the rally |
| Gold | $4,110 | $4,145 | Above resistance revives the rebound |
| Silver | $53.00 | $53.55 | Loss of support deepens pullback |
| USA500 (S&P 500 cash) | 7,420 | 7,580 | Above Monday’s high extends the rally |
| KOSPI (cash) | 5,200 | 5,300 | Break above the session high zone extends gains |
Trader’s Takeaway
The main risk is that a hot CPI print reverses the relief rally. A break below 1.1190 in EUR/USD would point to renewed dollar strength. A sustained S&P 500 cash move above 7,580 would confirm follow-through in equities.
About LMFX
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Disclaimer
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