According to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, expectations for annual inflation one-year-ahead decreased to 4.17%, while two-year-ahead inflation expectations increased slightly to 2.83%.
The five-year-ahead and ten-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped to 2.25% and 2.22%, respectively.
Annual wage inflation expectations for one-year-ahead and two-year-ahead rose to 5.04% and 3.66%, respectively.
Expectations for annual house price inflation one-year-ahead had a mean of 1.42%, rising 431 basis points from the previous estimate of -2.89%.
On average, survey respondents expected the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to be at 5.53% by the end of the September 2023 quarter, similar to the average expectation of 5.47% last quarter, and decline to 5.16% in one year’s time.
Annual GDP growth was expected to be 1.02% one year ahead and rise to 1.95% two year ahead.
On average, survey respondents expected the one-year-ahead unemployment rate to rise to 4.47%, and they expected the two-year-ahead rate to be 4.68%.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. Indexes which increased in June include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, education, and recreation. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, medical care, and communication were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index increased 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending July, slightly more than the 3.0-percent increase for the 12 months ending in June. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.7 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending July, and the food index increased 4.9 percent over the last year.
Per the Office for National Statistics in the UK monthly real gross domestic (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in June 2023, following a fall of 0.1% in May 2023 and growth of 0.2% in April 2023, both unrevised from the previous publication.
A range of businesses cited the additional bank holiday in May as a reason for increased output in June 2023 compared with May 2023.
Looking at the broader picture, GDP has shown 0.2% growth in the three months to June 2023.
Production output grew by 1.8% in June 2023 after a fall of 0.6% in May 2023, unrevised from the previous publication; this sector was the main contributor to the growth in monthly GDP in June.
The construction sector grew by 1.6% in June 2023, following a fall of 0.3% in May 2023, revised down from a fall of 0.2% in the previous publication.
Services output was up 0.2% in June 2023, after showing no growth in May 2023, unrevised from the previous publication; output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in June 2023, following an unrevised fall of 0.2% in May 2023.
