Tech stocks sink, oil climbs, and gold hit record
U.S. markets fell on China trade tensions; Nvidia sank 6%, retail sales rose, gold hit record, and global stocks broadly fell
U.S. Indicators and Markets Fell
U.S. financial markets faced renewed pressure amid escalating trade tensions with China. The S&P 500 futures dropped 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 fell 1.8%, and the Dow dipped 0.4%. Nvidia’s shares plunged over 6% after new U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China, triggering a projected $5.5 billion writedown. AMD shares also fell 6.8%.
U.S. March retail sales rose 1.4%, the strongest gain in two years, while industrial production and inventories were due later. Despite strong retail numbers, sentiment remains fragile. The yield on the 10-year Treasury stabilized at 4.33%, down from last week’s peak of 4.48%. The dollar weakened, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.5%, while the yen and euro gained.
The Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell was scheduled to speak, with markets pricing in at least three rate cuts this year. Banks like US Bancorp and Citizens Financial posted positive Q1 earnings, benefiting from market volatility.
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China and Asia Pacific
China’s Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year-over-year, beating forecasts of 5.1%. However, quarterly growth slowed to 1.2% from 1.6% in Q4 2024. Industrial output, retail sales, and exports all exceeded expectations, though analysts expect momentum to weaken. Property investment fell 9.9% YoY and home prices remained flat.
Asian markets reacted negatively: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.9%, Tokyo’s Nikkei dropped 1%, and South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.2%. Shanghai’s Composite gained 0.3%. India’s Sensex rose 0.4%, buoyed by confidence in its growing industrial sector, including iPhone and defense production.
Nvidia’s China-focused H20 chip now requires a license, reflecting deepening tensions. Beijing responded by suspending Boeing aircraft deliveries and Hongkong Post halted U.S. mail services involving goods. Tesla’s EV production plans were also disrupted.
Europe and U.K. Bonds Fell
European stocks slid on trade concerns. Germany’s DAX lost 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.5%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.3%. ASML dropped over 6% after warning tariffs would hurt business. ECB and Bank of Canada meetings were anticipated amid falling inflation; rate cuts are increasingly likely.
British inflation dropped for the second consecutive month in March, largely due to lower gas prices. Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell to 2.50%, while the U.K.’s 10-year yield declined to 4.61%.
Global Trade and Oil
The WTO slashed its 2025 global trade forecast to a 0.2% decline, down nearly 3 percentage points without trade war impacts. Trump proposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, while China retaliated with 125% duties.
Crude oil prices edged higher: WTI rose 1.1% to $62.01, and Brent crude hit $65.20. Despite the bounce, fears of slowing global demand due to tariffs continue to pressure energy markets.
Gold and Currencies
Gold surged 2.4% to a record $3,309.74 per ounce, now up 26% YTD, driven by safe-haven demand and China’s aggressive accumulation. The yen, euro, and British pound all strengthened, reflecting risk-off sentiment.
Cryptocurrencies Fell
Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $83,738.37 and Ether dropped 1% to $1,578.42. Bond markets steadied; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held at 4.33%, offering some calm after last week’s volatility.
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