Date 25 February 2026
Market Sentiment
Global FX markets are trading with a mix of cautious optimism and volatility as the U.S. dollar finds some support after recent tariff-related turbulence and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials. Risk sentiment remains fragile, while investors digest Monday’s inflation readings from Australia and prepare for broader macro drivers later this week. Precious metals and commodity currencies display increased sensitivity to risk mood and yield moves.
Previous Session Recap
• The U.S. dollar regained some traction after sliding earlier in the week amid tariff uncertainty and safe haven flows into yen and gold.
• EUR/USD held within its recent trading range near 1.18, reflecting balance between dollar strength and euro resilience.
• GBP/USD consolidated around the 1.35 level as sterling momentum eased in the absence of major UK macro data.
• AUD/USD was supported by stronger Australian CPI readings, reinforcing RBA tightening expectations.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
• Australian CPI came in steady, supporting AUD as traders reassess interest rate biases.
• Market sentiment pulse shows mixed volatility and cautious positioning across major FX pairs.
• Technical and fundamental forecasts show cautious momentum in USD/JPY and GBP/USD setups heading into today’s session.
Focus of the Day
Traders will continue to monitor inflation and sentiment drivers, especially in Asia after the Australian CPI print. With U.S. macro releases light for the session, risk sentiment, yield moves, and central bank commentary are likely to guide intraday FX flows. Positioning ahead of end-week data (such as U.S. consumer confidence and producer price indexes) may influence volatility.
Key Economic Events
• AUD Inflation Rate (YoY/MoM) – CPI data reinforced RBA tightening bias.
• EUR Germany GfK Consumer Climate (Mar), Germany GDP (Q4 final).
• EUR Eurozone CPI (Final) – confirms pricing trends.
• USD Crude Oil Inventories – impact on energy and commodity FX.
Major Currency Outlooks
USD – Neutral to Slightly Bullish
The dollar has found some footing following recent weakness amid trade policy noise and hawkish Fed commentary, yet risk remains that macro drivers could flip sentiment quickly.
EUR – Range-Bound
EUR/USD is trading within familiar ranges near 1.1750-1.1850, balancing eurozone stability against U.S. dollar repricing.
GBP – Neutral
GBP/USD remains near the 1.35 handle, with sterling price action largely influenced by global FX flows rather than UK domestic catalysts.
JPY – Mixed; Yen Sensitive
USD/JPY continues to trade near ~155.7, shaped by risk sentiment, BoJ outlook expectations, and technical positioning.
AUD – Supported
AUD/USD benefits from above-forecast Australian CPI, reinforcing expectations of tightening monetary conditions.
Commodity FX (CAD, NZD)
CAD and NZD remain tied to commodity prices and risk appetite, with BoC and RBNZ policy expectations also key directional drivers.
Commodities Watch
- Gold (XAU/USD) Prices remain elevated in volatile conditions; safe-haven demand persists.
- Silver (XAG/USD) Silver is trending higher alongside gold, reacting sensitively to risk sentiment.
- WTI & Brent Crude Oil prices are range-bound but supported, aligned with risk flows.
- Copper Copper trades near recent range highs, reflecting mixed industrial demand conditions.
Key Technical Zones
Currencies
- EUR/USD Support ~1.1750 – 1.1720 | Resistance ~1.1820 – 1.1850
- USD/JPY Support ~155.00 – 154.50 | Resistance ~156.50 – 158.00
- GBP/USD Support ~1.3450 – 1.3400 | Resistance ~1.3550 – 1.3600
- AUD/USD Support ~0.7050 – 0.7010 | Resistance ~0.7120 – 0.7160
- NZD/USD Support ~0.5940 – 0.5900 | Resistance ~0.6020 – 0.6060
- USD/CAD Support ~1.3640 – 1.3600 | Resistance ~1.3700 – 1.3750
Commodities
- Gold (XAU/USD) Support ~5,150 – 5,120 | Resistance ~5,250 – 5,280
- Silver (XAG/USD) Support ~88.0 – 86.0 | Resistance ~92.0 – 94.0
- WTI Crude Oil Support ~64.0 – 63.0 | Resistance ~67.0 – 68.5
- Brent Crude Oil Support ~70.5 – 69.5 | Resistance ~73.0 – 74.5
- Copper Support ~5.90 – 5.80 | Resistance ~6.05 – 6.15
Trader’s Takeaway
• The U.S. dollar finds support after recent volatility, but overall sentiment remains fragile.
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain range-bound with limited directional bias.
• AUD/USD strength reflects solid CPI prints and tightening expectations.
• Yen dynamics remain sensitive to risk sentiment and technical price action.
• Use key support and resistance zones to manage risk amid mixed global drivers.
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Disclaimer
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