Date: 29.06.2026
Market Sentiment
The dollar starts the week supported by elevated US rate expectations, although a renewed US-Iran diplomatic pause is improving risk appetite. The dollar index held near 101.25 and Brent traded around $72 as recovering Gulf flows reduced the supply premium. Spain’s flash June HICP held at 3.6%, keeping energy inflation and ECB caution in focus. Gold remained near $4,050 after higher policy-rate expectations outweighed haven demand. The immediate test is whether the ceasefire holds and whether this week’s US labour data validates the higher-for-longer rates narrative.
Previous Session Recap
Dollar demand kept EUR/USD at 1.1383 and USD/JPY near 161.72. Brent closed at $72.20.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
US-Iran talks resumed. Spain HICP held at 3.6%. US payrolls are Thursday.
Forex Focus of the Day
Dollar yield support dominates. EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 and USD/JPY near 161.80. Gulf headlines and jobs data lead.
Key Economic Events
Today: Lagarde, Pill. Tue: China PMIs, German CPI. Wed: HICP, ISM. Thu: US payrolls.
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| FX | Spot | Cue |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1393 | Yields |
| USD/JPY | 161.79 | Intervention |
| AUD/USD | 0.6895 | China |
| USD/CAD | 1.4194 | Brent |
Commodities Watch
| Commodity | Spot | Cue |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,050 | Rates |
| Brent | $72.40 | Gulf flows |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Market | S | R |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1360 | 1.1440 |
| USD/JPY | 160.80 | 162.20 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6860 | 0.6920 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4160 | 1.4220 |
| Gold | $4,040 | $4,090 |
| Brent | $71.40 | $73.50 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Dollar support persists. Watch 1.1400, 162.20 and $72.40.
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