Date: 01.07.2026
Market Sentiment
The dollar remains supported by higher Treasury yields and expectations for further Fed tightening. The euro weakened after June euro-area inflation fell to 2.8%, below the 3.0% forecast, easing pressure for another ECB move. Oil is the other key driver. Brent and WTI are lower as U.S.-Iran talks continue and Hormuz flows recover, but a large U.S. crude-stock draw keeps prices exposed to supply concerns. Focus turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Sintra remarks and dollar momentum.
Previous Session Recap
Dollar ended June firm, USD/JPY held above 162, gold fell, and oil stayed weak.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Headline | Impact |
|---|---|
| Euro HICP: 2.8% | EUR softer |
| U.S. yields higher | USD supported |
| Doha talks continue | Oil volatile |
Forex Focus of the Day
Warsh’s remarks follow firm U.S. data. A hawkish message may extend dollar demand, while a softer one could spark a correction.
Key Economic Events
| Event | Actual |
| Euro HICP | 2.8% |
| U.S. ADP | 122K |
| U.S. ISM | 54.0 |
| U.S. crude stocks | -6.09M |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Spot | Bias |
| EUR/USD | 1.1395 | Bearish |
| GBP/USD | 1.3234 | Capped |
| USD/JPY | 162.65 | Bullish, intervention risk |
Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Spot | Bias |
| Gold | $3,974.75 | Yield-sensitive |
| WTI | $68.39 | Headline-driven |
| Brent | $71.81 | Cautious |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
| EUR/USD | 1.1350 | 1.1450 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3200 | 1.3300 |
| USD/JPY | 162.00 | 163.00 |
| Gold | $3,943 | $4,000 |
| WTI | $67.00 | $70.00 |
| Brent | $70.00 | $73.00 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Risk management matters around Warsh. Dollar momentum is constructive, but USD/JPY intervention risk and oil headlines can trigger reversals.
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