Date: 02.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Markets begin 2 July with the US dollar softer before June’s US employment report, which will test expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. EUR/USD is near 1.1140 and GBP/USD near 1.3350, while USD/JPY has slipped toward 161.30 after a sudden yen rally revived intervention speculation. Meanwhile, positive progress in US-Iran talks and returning Strait of Hormuz flows have pushed oil lower, easing inflation concerns and supporting gold above $4,070. US labour data and the oil-driven repricing of inflation risk should drive intraday volatility.
Previous Session Recap
Gold rose after softer private-employment data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s less hawkish inflation remarks. Oil declined as supply fears eased.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
• Yen strength triggered renewed intervention concerns.
• US-Iran talks improved the outlook for Hormuz flows.
• US payrolls are due at 12:30 GMT.
Forex Focus of the Day
Data above consensus could revive dollar demand, whereas a weak release may accelerate its pullback.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Market focus |
|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US June employment report | 110K payrolls, 4.3% unemployment |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Instrument | Spot | Focus |
| EUR/USD | 1.1140 | NFP volatility |
| GBP/USD | 1.3350 | Dollar direction |
| USD/JPY | 161.30 | Intervention risk |
Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Spot | Focus |
| Gold | $4,078 | Yields and USD |
| WTI | $67.99 | Hormuz supply |
| Brent | $70.91 | OPEC+ watch |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
| EUR/USD | 1.1100 | 1.1180 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3280 | 1.3400 |
| USD/JPY | 160.50 | 162.00 |
| Gold | $4,030 | $4,100 |
| WTI | $67.00 | $69.50 |
| Brent | $70.00 | $72.50 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Avoid chasing the first move after payrolls. Use confirmed breaks of the listed zones and recognise that USD/JPY can react to intervention headlines.
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