Date: 03.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is mixed as easing Middle East tensions support equity futures while oil and Asian technology shares sustain volatility. WTI and Brent have dropped around 5% after Washington paused action against Iran and signalled negotiations, reducing the supply-risk premium. The yen remains the strongest major currency following coordinated US-Japan intervention, while the dollar trades defensively. European and US equity futures are firmer, but South Korea’s technology-heavy market is retreating after Friday’s record rebound. Today’s manufacturing PMIs and US ISM report will test growth optimism.
Previous Session Recap
US equities rose Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and Nasdaq 1.0% on Amazon results. The KOSPI rebounded 17.9%. The dollar firmed, metals stayed elevated and natural gas eased.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The yen hit a three-month high after joint intervention.
- Oil fell about 5% as renewed Iran diplomacy reduced immediate Hormuz risk.
- China’s manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.9, missing expectations.
- The KOSPI dropped 4.5% on profit-taking in chip leaders.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is the focus. Intervention shifted positioning, although the rate gap limits a lasting yen recovery. Markets are watching 155.20 and US manufacturing data.
Key Economic Events
Times shown in EEST, Sofia time.
| Time | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | Swiss CPI | CHF | High |
| 11:00 | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, final | EUR | Medium |
| 11:30 | UK Manufacturing PMI, final | GBP | Medium |
| 16:45 | US Manufacturing PMI, final | USD | Medium |
| 17:00 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | USD | High |
| 17:00 | US Construction Spending | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1531 | Bullish | Softer dollar, PMI |
| GBP/USD | 1.3480 | Bullish | Dollar weakness, PMI |
| USD/JPY | 156.50 | Bearish | Joint intervention |
| USD/CAD | 1.4035 | Bullish | Oil drop |
| AUD/USD | 0.7031 | Mildly bullish | Risk recovery |
| NZD/USD | 0.5878 | Neutral | Mixed regional tone |
| EUR/JPY | 180.47 | Bearish | Yen demand |
| USD/NOK | 9.5542 | Bullish | Brent decline |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI | $79.77 | Bearish | Iran diplomacy, OPEC+ |
| UKOIL, Brent | $83.44 | Bearish | Lower Hormuz risk |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.761 | Neutral | Adequate storage |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,068.54 | Bullish | Softer dollar |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $58.96 | Bullish | Metals demand |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,298.75 | Bearish, volatile | Chip profit-taking |
| USA500 futures | 7,563.00 | Bullish | Lower oil, earnings |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1490 | 1.1575 | Breakout favours gains |
| GBP/USD | 1.3420 | 1.3525 | Support preserves upside |
| USD/JPY | 155.20 | 158.00 | Breakdown extends yen move |
| USD/CAD | 1.3970 | 1.4090 | Breakout confirms pressure |
| AUD/USD | 0.6985 | 0.7075 | Breakout strengthens momentum |
| NZD/USD | 0.5840 | 0.5915 | Range break directs |
| EUR/JPY | 179.50 | 181.50 | Breakdown favours yen |
| USD/NOK | 9.4900 | 9.6300 | Breakout confirms rise |
| USOIL, WTI | $78.50 | $82.50 | Breakdown extends decline |
| UKOIL, Brent | $82.00 | $86.00 | Resistance favours sellers |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.700 | $2.820 | Range break directs |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,035 | $4,100 | Breakout restores momentum |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $58.00 | $60.00 | Breakout extends gains |
| KOSPI | 6,200 | 6,400 | Breakdown risks liquidation |
| USA500 futures | 7,510 | 7,600 | Breakout extends recovery |
Trader’s Takeaway
The main risk is whether diplomacy keeps oil lower. US ISM manufacturing is the key catalyst. USD/JPY below 155.20 and WTI below $82.50 would confirm direction.
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