Date: 04.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautiously positive after strong US manufacturing data and earnings lifted Wall Street, although uncertainty over US-Iran diplomacy is supporting oil. The dollar remains near a two-month low against its broader basket but has recovered against the yen as intervention momentum fades. Australian equities reached a five-month high, while other Asian markets were mixed amid semiconductor volatility. Gold and silver remain supported by geopolitical risk and upcoming US labour data. Today’s JOLTS vacancies and factory orders will shape Federal Reserve expectations.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street rallied Monday, with the S&P 500 up 1.5%, Dow 1.3% and Nasdaq 2.1%. Manufacturing and earnings supported equities. Oil fell sharply on hopes of US-Iran talks, Treasury yields eased and the yen retained intervention-driven gains.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
Oil rebounded around 1% after Iran denied US negotiations.
The dollar recovered against the yen but remained broadly weak.
The ASX 200 reached a five-month high on broad gains.
Gold and silver strengthened on Middle East uncertainty.
Forex Focus of the Day
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are in focus. Resilient Australian labour demand and a rising ASX 200 support AUD, while New Zealand employment data is next. AUD/NZD is testing 1.2000, offering a gauge of regional rate expectations.
Key Economic Events
Time Event Currency Impact
15:30 US Trade Balance USD High
17:00 US JOLTS Job Openings USD High
17:00 US Factory Orders USD Medium
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
Pair Price Bias Main Driver
EUR/USD 1.1509 Neutral Mixed USD drivers
GBP/USD 1.3425 Bearish Dollar rebound
USD/JPY 157.50 Bullish Intervention fades
USD/CHF 0.8102 Neutral Haven demand
AUD/USD 0.7018 Mildly bullish Resilient labour
NZD/USD 0.5865 Bearish Jobs-data caution
EUR/JPY 181.44 Bullish Yen retracement
AUD/NZD 1.1963 Bullish Australian strength
Energy & Commodities Watch
Instrument Price Bias Main Driver
USOIL, WTI $81.11 Bullish, volatile Iran denies talks
UKOIL, Brent $84.89 Bullish, volatile Hormuz uncertainty
NGAS, Natural Gas $2.779 Neutral LNG flows, supply
XAU/USD, Gold $4,062.41 Mildly bullish Geopolitical risk
XAG/USD, Silver $59.60 Bullish Metals demand, momentum
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
Instrument Price Bias Main Driver
AUS200 9,145.80 Bullish Five-month high
USA500 7,616.40 Bullish Manufacturing and earnings
Key Market Technical Zones
Instrument Support Resistance Key Condition
EUR/USD 1.1475 1.1540 Breakout sets direction
GBP/USD 1.3380 1.3470 Below support extends decline
USD/JPY 156.50 158.00 Breakout resumes recovery
USD/CHF 0.8070 0.8140 Range break sets direction
AUD/USD 0.6970 0.7050 Above resistance strengthens AUD
NZD/USD 0.5835 0.5900 Support failure extends losses
EUR/JPY 180.80 182.20 Breakout favours gains
AUD/NZD 1.1915 1.2000 Above 1.2000 confirms momentum
USOIL, WTI $79.50 $82.50 Breakout restores upside
UKOIL, Brent $83.00 $86.00 Above $86 extends rebound
NGAS, Natural Gas $2.750 $2.820 Range break sets direction
XAU/USD, Gold $4,025 $4,100 Breakout restores momentum
XAG/USD, Silver $58.80 $60.00 Above $60 extends gains
AUS200 9,080 9,200 Breakout targets new highs
USA500 7,560 7,650 Above 7,650 extends rally
Trader’s Takeaway
The main risk is renewed Iran escalation. US JOLTS is the key catalyst. USD/JPY above 156.50 and Brent above $86 would confirm stronger dollar and energy momentum, while weaker labour demand could reverse direction.
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