Date: 10.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is moderately positive after weak US employment data reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate increase and helped Wall Street reach fresh records. Asian equities advanced, led by a technology-driven surge in Japan, while Treasury yields remained below pre-payroll levels. The dollar is holding near a two-month low as investors turn toward Wednesday’s US inflation report. Oil remains firm because an Iran-Oman shipping agreement has not resolved access to the Strait of Hormuz, while gold is consolidating near a seven-week high after gaining more than 7% last week.
Previous Session Recap
US equities rallied Friday after employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs in July and previous payroll estimates were revised sharply lower. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to a record 7,757.64, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.3%. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.64%, while the probability of a September rate increase fell. The dollar weakened, and gold closed its strongest week since January.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar stabilized near a two-month low as investors awaited this week’s US inflation releases.
- USD/JPY returned above 158.00, although intervention risk continues to discourage aggressive yen selling.
- The Nikkei 225 gained more than 2% as semiconductor equipment and technology shares rallied.
- Oil edged higher as Iran-Oman negotiations left important conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz unresolved.
- Gold held near a seven-week high after the soft US payroll report reduced near-term rate expectations.
Forex Focus of the Day
AUD/USD is the main Forex focus ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision. The pair is holding near 0.7071 as markets expect the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.35%. Australia’s relatively firm rate outlook and the softer US dollar support the pair, but caution before US inflation data may limit momentum. AUD/NZD is also testing the 1.2000 area, providing a direct measure of relative policy expectations across the region.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 GMT | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence | EUR | Medium |
| 14:00 GMT | US Employment Trends Index | USD | Medium |
| 15:30 GMT | US Three-Month and Six-Month Bill Auctions | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1563 | Mildly bullish | Soft dollar, Sentix survey |
| GBP/USD | 1.3496 | Mildly bullish | Reduced US rate expectations |
| USD/JPY | 158.52 | Neutral, volatile | Yield gap, intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.3936 | Mildly bearish | Dollar weakness, firm oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7071 | Mildly bullish | RBA decision approaching |
| NZD/USD | 0.5887 | Neutral | Risk appetite, dollar consolidation |
| EUR/JPY | 183.28 | Bullish, volatile | Yen weakness, intervention threat |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2012 | Mildly bullish | Relative Australian rate support |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $78.56 | Mildly bullish, volatile | Gulf shipping uncertainty |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $84.04 | Mildly bullish, volatile | Hormuz negotiations |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.75 | Neutral | Exports, strong production |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,346.85 | Bullish | Lower rate expectations |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $63.62 | Bullish | Precious-metals momentum |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 66,970.22 | Bullish | Technology and chip rally |
| USA500, S&P 500 | 7,757.64 | Bullish | Record close, lower rate risk |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1520 | 1.1600 | Breakout extends seven-week advance |
| GBP/USD | 1.3440 | 1.3550 | Holding support preserves upside |
| USD/JPY | 157.20 | 159.20 | Resistance tests intervention tolerance |
| USD/CAD | 1.3880 | 1.4000 | Rejection confirms dollar weakness |
| AUD/USD | 0.7020 | 0.7120 | RBA expectations guide breakout |
| NZD/USD | 0.5840 | 0.5930 | Range break establishes direction |
| EUR/JPY | 181.80 | 184.00 | Intervention risk caps momentum |
| AUD/NZD | 1.1960 | 1.2060 | Holding 1.2000 favors buyers |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $76.80 | $80.00 | Breakout confirms supply-risk premium |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $82.50 | $85.50 | Negotiation headlines drive range |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.66 | $2.85 | Breakout reverses recent weakness |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,290 | $4,400 | Breakout extends rate-driven rally |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $62.00 | $65.00 | Holding support preserves momentum |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,700 | 67,500 | Breakout sustains technology rally |
| USA500, S&P 500 | 7,700 | 7,800 | Record breakout extends gains |
Trader’s Takeaway
The main risk is renewed oil-price pressure before US inflation data, which could revive expectations for a September rate increase. Monday’s calendar is light, making technical levels and Gulf headlines more influential. Watch AUD/USD near 0.7120, USD/JPY near 159.20, Brent around $85.50, and gold at $4,400. Breakouts would confirm stronger directional momentum, while rejection could favor consolidation before the week’s major central-bank and inflation catalysts.
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