Date: 01.10.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is divided between an AI-led equity rally and intensifying pressure from global bond markets. Micron’s strong outlook lifted Japanese and Korean semiconductor shares, but the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.30% pushed the dollar to a three-month high and drove EUR/USD below 1.1300. Softer U.S. inflation reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve increase, yet long-term fiscal and energy concerns remain dominant. Recovering Gulf exports are easing oil prices, while European political and inflation risks keep the broader tone fragile.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street ended mixed Wednesday as yields rose despite softer core PCE inflation. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow lost 443 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.30%, while gold stabilized.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- EUR/USD fell below 1.1300 for the first time since May 2025 as European assets weakened.
- USD/JPY advanced above 158 as rising U.S. yields outweighed intervention concerns.
- Micron’s strong AI-memory outlook lifted the Nikkei more than 3% and KOSPI nearly 2%.
- AUS200 dropped about 2% as high yields and inflation concerns pressured every sector.
- Gulf crude exports recovered to normal levels, reducing immediate supply fears.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD is Thursday’s main Forex focus after breaking 1.1300. Stronger eurozone manufacturing offers limited relief against U.S. yields, energy exposure, and French political risk. Remaining below 1.1370 preserves pressure toward 1.1240. U.S. claims or ISM manufacturing must disappoint to support a durable rebound.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 GMT | Switzerland CPI | CHF | High |
| 08:00 GMT | Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI | EUR | High |
| 08:30 GMT | UK Final Manufacturing PMI | GBP | High |
| 09:00 GMT | Eurozone Unemployment Rate | EUR | Medium |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | USD | High |
| 13:05 GMT | Fed President Schmid Speech | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI | USD | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Natural Gas Inventories | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1299 | Bearish, volatile | High U.S. yields; European risks |
| GBP/USD | 1.3242 | Bearish | Bond selloff; UK PMI |
| USD/JPY | 158.29 | Bullish, volatile | Yield gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8360 | Bullish, volatile | Swiss CPI; dollar strength |
| USD/CAD | 1.4200 | Bullish | Dollar momentum; softer oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.6940 | Bearish | Inflation undershoot; risk pressure |
| EUR/JPY | 178.85 | Bearish, volatile | European weakness; yen sensitivity |
| AUD/JPY | 109.85 | Bearish, volatile | Australian equity selloff |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $90.09 | Neutral, bearish | Inventory build; recovered exports |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $98.67 | Neutral, bearish | Gulf flows; diplomacy |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.98 | Bearish, volatile | Inventories; strong production |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,187 | Neutral, bullish | Softer inflation versus high yields |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $61.23 | Bullish, volatile | Precious-metals rebound |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 68,957 | Bullish, volatile | More than 3% AI-chip rally |
| KOSPI | 6,971 | Bullish, volatile | Nearly 2% memory-chip rally |
| AUS200 | 8,614 | Bearish, volatile | Broad 2% sector selloff |
| USDIndex | 101.66 | Bullish | Three-month high; rising yields |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1240 | 1.1370 | U.S. data tests breakdown |
| GBP/USD | 1.3180 | 1.3310 | PMI must restore support |
| USD/JPY | 157.20 | 159.50 | Intervention risk limits upside |
| USD/CHF | 0.8300 | 0.8430 | Swiss inflation decides extension |
| USD/CAD | 1.4130 | 1.4280 | Soft oil favors advances |
| AUD/USD | 0.6890 | 0.7010 | Risk pressure caps rebounds |
| EUR/JPY | 177.50 | 180.50 | Europe weakness favors downside |
| AUD/JPY | 108.80 | 111.00 | Equity losses pressure support |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $88.00 | $93.00 | Recovered exports cap gains |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $96.00 | $101.00 | Diplomacy tests risk premium |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.90 | $3.08 | Inventories determine range break |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,120 | $4,250 | High yields limit rebound |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $60.00 | $63.00 | Hold support preserves recovery |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 67,500 | 70,000 | Chip momentum sustains breakout |
| KOSPI | 6,850 | 7,100 | Memory demand protects support |
| AUS200 | 8,500 | 8,750 | Below resistance favors sellers |
| USDIndex | 101.00 | 102.20 | Yields preserve upward momentum |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is that long-term yields continue rising despite softer inflation, extending dollar gains and regional equity divergence. U.S. claims and ISM manufacturing are the main catalysts. EUR/USD below 1.1370 favors sellers, while USDIndex above 101.00 preserves momentum. Brent below $101 confirms supply relief; Nikkei and KOSPI must hold support to sustain the AI rally.
About LMFX
LMFX is a trusted global brokerage providing access to Forex, commodities, indices, and precious metals. Known for its fast execution and competitive spreads, LMFX offers the MT4 trading platform, flexible account types, and a variety of funding options. With dedicated customer support and a focus on transparency and reliability, LMFX serves traders at all experience levels worldwide.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendation. Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs involves risk and may not be suitable for all traders. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please read LMFX’s full ‘Risk Disclosure Statement’. Always trade responsibly.
