Date: 18.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is defensive as the expired U.S.-Iran ceasefire lifts oil prices, global bond yields, and inflation concerns. Brent has moved above $91 while the U.S. 30-year yield reached its highest level since 2007, tightening financial conditions and pressuring equities. The dollar is receiving modest haven support but remains constrained by reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve increase. Cooling UK labor data is weighing on sterling, while Japanese and South Korean stocks are retreating sharply as investors reduce exposure to high-valuation technology and AI-linked shares.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street closed lower Monday as higher oil prices and caution before major retail earnings outweighed semiconductor gains. The Dow fell 0.51%, the S&P 500 lost 0.52%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.31%. Energy was the only S&P sector to rise, gaining 0.87%, while Microsoft and Meta dropped more than 3%. Oil advanced over $2 per barrel as U.S.-Iran tensions intensified.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Brent climbed above $91 after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired and Tehran warned of a fully offensive posture.
- The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.326%, its highest level in nearly two decades.
- UK unemployment held at 4.9%, vacancies fell to their lowest since 2021, and private-sector wage growth slowed.
- The Nikkei dropped 2.5%, while the KOSPI fell as bond and energy pressures hit Asian risk appetite.
- India’s rupee weakened toward 95.68 despite broad RBI intervention across currency markets.
Forex Focus of the Day
GBP/USD is the main Forex focus after cooling UK employment data. Softer wages and vacancies weaken the pound’s domestic support, but diminished Fed tightening expectations limit dollar upside. U.S. housing, trade-price, and industrial-production releases may determine the next move. A break below 1.3460 would favor sellers, while recovery above 1.3600 would restore broader sterling momentum.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 GMT | UK Employment Report | GBP | High |
| 12:15 GMT | Canada Housing Starts | CAD | Medium |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Import and Export Prices | USD | High |
| 13:15 GMT | U.S. Industrial Production | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. Pending Home Sales | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1570 | Neutral | Dollar haven demand; Fed restraint |
| GBP/USD | 1.3520 | Slightly bearish | Cooling UK labor market |
| USD/JPY | 159.76 | Bullish, volatile | Yield pressure; intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.4002 | Neutral, volatile | Oil support versus risk aversion |
| AUD/USD | 0.7031 | Bearish | Asian equity weakness |
| NZD/USD | 0.5886 | Bearish | Defensive global positioning |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8554 | Bullish | UK employment slowdown |
| USD/INR | 95.68 | Bullish, volatile | Oil strain; RBI intervention |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $85.16 | Bullish, volatile | Expired ceasefire; supply risk |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $91.35 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz disruption concerns |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.69 | Neutral, bearish | High production; adequate storage |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,397.42 | Slightly bearish | Rising Treasury yields |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $65.36 | Bearish, volatile | Yield pressure; profit-taking |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 67,460.73 | Bearish, volatile | Oil shock; bond-yield surge |
| KOSPI | 6,869.83 | Bearish, volatile | AI volatility; foreign outflows |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1510 | 1.1630 | Range break sets direction |
| GBP/USD | 1.3460 | 1.3600 | Below support extends weakness |
| USD/JPY | 158.50 | 160.50 | Intervention risk rises above 160 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3940 | 1.4070 | Oil reaction controls breakout |
| AUD/USD | 0.6980 | 0.7090 | Below resistance favors sellers |
| NZD/USD | 0.5830 | 0.5940 | Risk tone determines range break |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8510 | 0.8600 | Hold support preserves upside |
| USD/INR | 95.20 | 96.00 | RBI action may cap resistance |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $83.00 | $88.00 | Supply premium holds above support |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $89.00 | $94.00 | Escalation favors resistance test |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.60 | $2.80 | Production limits recovery |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,380 | $4,450 | Yield relief needed for breakout |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $64.00 | $67.00 | Hold support prevents deeper correction |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 66,500 | 68,500 | Recovery requires resistance break |
| KOSPI | 6,700 | 7,000 | Volatility remains elevated below resistance |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant threat is a renewed energy-driven inflation shock as the U.S.-Iran truce ends. U.S. activity data is today’s main scheduled catalyst. Brent above $89, USD/JPY near 160, and JPN225 below 68,500 would confirm the defensive pattern. A retreat in oil and yields could stabilize gold and Asian equities, but geopolitical headlines remain decisive.
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