Date: 17.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Markets remain cautious after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate increase in three years and signaled another move this year. The dollar reached a seven-week high before easing, while Treasury yields remain near 5%. Oil’s second daily decline offers relief as Saudi Arabia reroutes crude through Oman, yet prices above $100 preserve inflation and geopolitical risks. Attention shifts to the Bank of England and Friday’s expected BOJ increase. European equities are firmer, but risk appetite remains sensitive to policy guidance.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street fell Wednesday after the Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%. The Dow dropped 1.21%, the S&P 500 lost 0.45%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.01%. The two-year yield reached 4.725%, while retail sales reinforced tightening expectations. WTI fell 3.2%.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar index touched 100.36 before retreating with oil.
- Sixteen of 18 Fed policymakers projected another increase this year.
- The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75%.
- The BOJ is expected to raise rates to 1.25% Friday.
- Saudi crude rerouting through Oman reduced immediate supply fears.
Forex Focus of the Day
GBP/USD is Thursday’s focus before the Bank of England decision at 11:00 GMT. A hold is expected, so guidance on energy inflation will determine the reaction. Remaining below 1.3460 preserves the bearish structure toward 1.3320. A sustained break higher would show BOE concerns outweighing dollar support.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 GMT | Bank of England Rate Decision | GBP | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Housing Starts and Permits | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. Pending Home Sales | USD | Medium |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Natural Gas Inventories | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1481 | Neutral, bearish | Hawkish Fed; softer oil |
| GBP/USD | 1.3387 | Bearish, volatile | BOE guidance; Fed tightening |
| USD/JPY | 155.73 | Neutral, bearish | Expected BOJ increase |
| USD/CHF | 0.8256 | Bullish | Dollar rates; haven balance |
| USD/CAD | 1.3986 | Bullish, volatile | Fed support versus expensive oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7111 | Neutral, bearish | Rate gap; risk recovery |
| GBP/JPY | 208.47 | Bearish, volatile | BOE-BOJ policy contrast |
| USD/INR | 96.08 | Bullish, volatile | Fed hike; RBI intervention |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $100.66 | Bearish, volatile | Saudi rerouting; supply relief |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $103.95 | Bearish, volatile | Alternative cargo route |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.91 | Neutral | Inventory data; weather balance |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,314.64 | Neutral, bullish | Technical rebound; lower oil |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $63.91 | Neutral, bullish | Precious-metals recovery |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 64,548.75 | Bullish, volatile | Bargain buying; softer oil |
| TSE Growth Market 250 | 790.88 | Bullish, volatile | 2.54% rally |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1440 | 1.1540 | Fed advantage caps rebounds |
| GBP/USD | 1.3320 | 1.3460 | BOE guidance decides break |
| USD/JPY | 154.50 | 157.00 | BOJ expectations limit upside |
| USD/CHF | 0.8200 | 0.8320 | Yields support advances |
| USD/CAD | 1.3920 | 1.4050 | Oil tests dollar momentum |
| AUD/USD | 0.7050 | 0.7180 | Recovery needs resistance break |
| GBP/JPY | 207.00 | 210.00 | Central banks drive volatility |
| USD/INR | 95.70 | 96.30 | RBI action limits upside |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $99.00 | $104.00 | Below resistance favors sellers |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $102.00 | $107.00 | Supply relief pressures premium |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.82 | $3.00 | Inventories determine break |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,260 | $4,360 | Rebound needs confirmation |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $62.50 | $65.00 | Hold support preserves recovery |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 63,800 | 65,200 | BOJ risk tests rally |
| TSE Growth Market 250 | 770 | 810 | Hold support sustains breakout |
Trader’s Takeaway
Global tightening remains the dominant risk after the Fed increase. BOE guidance is the catalyst, while U.S. data test the dollar. GBP/USD below 1.3460 favors sellers, USD/JPY below 157.00 preserves BOJ sensitivity, and Brent below $107 confirms supply relief. Gold and Nikkei require resistance breaks.
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