Date: 24.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautious as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield holds above 5.1%, strengthening the dollar and pressuring rate-sensitive equities and metals. Oil has eased from Wednesday’s surge but remains elevated as U.S.–Iran diplomacy shows limited progress, preserving inflation risk. Attention now turns to the Trump–Xi summit after Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their trade truce, while U.S. labor data and Canadian retail sales may reshape rate expectations. Japan’s bond selloff and intervention concerns near USD/JPY 160 add volatility despite a firmer Nikkei.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street fell Wednesday after U.S. composite PMI reached 58.4 and the 10-year yield hit its highest level since 2007. The Dow lost 0.68%, the S&P 500 fell 0.75%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.13%. WTI rose 2.3%, Brent gained 4.28%, and spot gold fell 1.64%.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Washington and Beijing reached an agreement to extend their trade truce before today’s Trump–Xi summit.
- Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to 3.075%, its highest level since 1996.
- Brent eased toward $102 as traders reassessed Middle East supply and diplomatic risks.
- Australia added 39,500 jobs, while unemployment edged up to 4.6%.
- Germany’s Ifo business climate improved to 89.9, exceeding expectations.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/CAD is Thursday’s primary Forex focus before Canadian retail sales at 12:30 GMT. Dollar yield support and Wednesday’s oil volatility favor wide swings around 1.4100. A weak sales report could expose 1.4180, while stronger consumption and renewed crude gains may return the pair toward 1.4020. Confirmation requires a sustained break beyond either boundary.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 GMT | ECB Lane Speech | EUR | High |
| 12:00 GMT | Fed Barkin Speech | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | Canada Retail Sales | CAD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. New Home Sales | USD | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Natural Gas Inventories | USD | Medium |
| 19:00 GMT | Mexico Rate Decision | MXN | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1383 | Bearish | U.S. yield advantage |
| GBP/USD | 1.3239 | Bearish | Firm dollar; BOE caution |
| USD/JPY | 157.91 | Bullish, volatile | Rate gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.4099 | Bullish, volatile | Canadian sales; oil swings |
| AUD/USD | 0.7037 | Neutral, bearish | Mixed jobs; risk aversion |
| NZD/USD | 0.5682 | Bearish | Higher U.S. yields |
| USD/CNH | 6.7151 | Neutral, volatile | Trump–Xi trade summit |
| CAD/JPY | 111.99 | Neutral, volatile | Sales, oil, intervention risk |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $91.43 | Neutral, volatile | Iran risk; profit-taking |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $102.27 | Neutral, volatile | Supply risk; diplomacy |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.05 | Neutral, bullish | Inventory expectations |
| Gold | $4,303 | Bearish | High yields; firm dollar |
| Silver | $64.30 | Bearish, volatile | Yield pressure; liquidation |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,861.04 | Bullish, volatile | Reopening rally; weak yen |
| KOSPI | 7,080.92 | Neutral, bullish | Semiconductor demand; summit hopes |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1340 | 1.1450 | High yields cap rebounds |
| GBP/USD | 1.3180 | 1.3310 | Resistance favors sellers |
| USD/JPY | 157.00 | 160.00 | Intervention risk limits upside |
| USD/CAD | 1.4020 | 1.4180 | Sales decide range break |
| AUD/USD | 0.6980 | 0.7100 | Jobs offer limited support |
| NZD/USD | 0.5630 | 0.5750 | Dollar strength favors sellers |
| USD/CNH | 6.6800 | 6.7500 | Summit outcome determines break |
| CAD/JPY | 111.00 | 113.20 | Oil and sales drive direction |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $89.00 | $94.00 | Diplomacy tests support |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $100.00 | $105.00 | Supply risk protects support |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.96 | $3.15 | Inventories decide breakout |
| Gold | $4,250 | $4,360 | Yields limit recovery |
| Silver | $63.00 | $66.00 | Resistance favors sellers |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,000 | 66,500 | Weak yen sustains rally |
| KOSPI | 6,950 | 7,180 | Chip demand protects support |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is a prolonged bond selloff reinforcing dollar strength and equity pressure. Canadian sales, U.S. labor data, and summit headlines are today’s catalysts. USD/CAD above 1.4020 preserves upside, while USD/JPY near 160 remains intervention-sensitive. Brent above $100 maintains inflation risk; gold below $4,360 and KOSPI below 7,180 still require confirmation.
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