Date: 18.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite is improving as oil retreats for a third session and Asian equities follow Thursday’s Wall Street rebound, but central-bank uncertainty remains elevated. The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25%, a 31-year high, yet a split vote and cautious language weakened the yen beyond 157 per dollar. Sterling is steadier after UK retail sales beat forecasts, while markets continue digesting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish increase and the Bank of England’s hold. Brent remains above $100, preserving inflation and geopolitical risks despite progress restoring Saudi export capacity.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street rebounded Thursday as lower oil and easing bond pressure supported risk assets. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the Dow added 316 points. Sterling weakened after the Bank of England held at 3.75%, while WTI retreated.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The BOJ raised its rate to 1.25% in a 7-2 vote.
- USD/JPY exceeded 157 as the split decision tempered tightening expectations.
- UK retail sales rose 0.5% in August, beating expectations for a decline.
- Brent neared $102.50 as Saudi restoration efforts reduced supply fears.
- KOSPI surged 2.66% as chipmakers rallied and inflation concerns eased.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is Friday’s focus after the BOJ decision. The expected hike’s dissenting votes and limited guidance encouraged yen selling. Holding above 156.00 keeps 158.00 exposed; a reversal below support would suggest renewed expectations for another increase. Intervention risk remains important near recent extremes.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 GMT | UK Retail Sales | GBP | High |
| 06:30 GMT | BOJ Governor Ueda Press Conference | JPY | High |
| 12:30 GMT | Canada Retail Sales | CAD | High |
| 17:00 GMT | Baker Hughes Rig Count | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1486 | Neutral, bearish | Hawkish Fed; weekly dollar strength |
| GBP/USD | 1.3369 | Neutral, volatile | Strong retail sales; BOE caution |
| USD/JPY | 157.54 | Bullish, volatile | Split BOJ vote; cautious guidance |
| USD/CHF | 0.8245 | Neutral, bullish | U.S. rate advantage |
| USD/CAD | 1.4000 | Bullish, volatile | Canadian sales; falling oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7124 | Neutral, bullish | Asian rebound; RBA inflation warning |
| EUR/JPY | 180.93 | Bullish, volatile | BOJ disappointment; policy divergence |
| GBP/JPY | 210.62 | Bullish, volatile | UK sales; yen weakness |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $100.04 | Bearish, volatile | Saudi supply restoration |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $102.53 | Bearish, volatile | Third daily decline; rerouted cargoes |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.86 | Neutral, bearish | Ample supply; mild demand |
| Gold | $4,436.60 | Bullish | Lower yields; geopolitical demand |
| Silver | $67.64 | Bullish, volatile | Metals rebound; softer yields |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,894.23 | Bullish, volatile | 2.66% semiconductor-led surge |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,018.95 | Bullish, volatile | Weak yen after BOJ increase |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1440 | 1.1540 | Dollar advantage caps rebounds |
| GBP/USD | 1.3300 | 1.3440 | Sales strength tests resistance |
| USD/JPY | 156.00 | 158.00 | Hold support sustains breakout |
| USD/CHF | 0.8190 | 0.8310 | U.S. yields guide direction |
| USD/CAD | 1.3930 | 1.4070 | Sales data decides extension |
| AUD/USD | 0.7070 | 0.7190 | Risk recovery needs confirmation |
| EUR/JPY | 179.50 | 182.00 | Yen weakness supports advances |
| GBP/JPY | 209.00 | 212.00 | Policy divergence favors upside |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $98.00 | $103.00 | Below resistance favors sellers |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $100.00 | $106.00 | Supply recovery pressures premium |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.78 | $2.96 | Demand must clear resistance |
| Gold | $4,380 | $4,480 | Lower yields protect support |
| Silver | $66.00 | $69.00 | Hold support sustains rebound |
| KOSPI | 6,800 | 7,000 | Chip momentum tests resistance |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 64,400 | 65,500 | Weak yen preserves rally |
Trader’s Takeaway
Central-bank tightening and energy disruption remain the dominant risks. Canadian retail sales are the next catalyst, while BOJ guidance remains central for yen crosses. USD/JPY above 156.00 confirms bullish momentum, Brent below $106 supports supply relief, and KOSPI above 6,800 preserves the equity rebound. Gold needs to hold $4,380.
About LMFX
LMFX is a trusted global brokerage providing access to Forex, commodities, indices, and precious metals. Known for its fast execution and competitive spreads, LMFX offers the MT4 trading platform, flexible account types, and a variety of funding options. With dedicated customer support and a focus on transparency and reliability, LMFX serves traders at all experience levels worldwide.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendation. Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs involves risk and may not be suitable for all traders. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please read LMFX’s full ‘Risk Disclosure Statement’. Always trade responsibly.
