Date: 25.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is mixed as the dollar heads for a second consecutive weekly gain and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield holds near 5.17%. Firm Federal Reserve guidance and resilient labor data keep rate expectations restrictive, pressuring the euro, sterling, and commodity currencies. USD/JPY has retreated from 159 after Japanese intervention warnings, but the yield gap remains supportive. Oil is easing from Thursday’s spike, although Brent above $106 preserves an inflation premium after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Asian equities remain firm, led by Japan.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street finished nearly flat Thursday. The Dow fell 0.31%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.02%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.01%. The dollar strengthened while oil surged.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar approached its first back-to-back weekly gains since June.
- USD/JPY reversed from 159 after renewed Japanese intervention warnings.
- Brent held above $106 after Houthi attacks revived Saudi supply concerns.
- Federal Reserve officials said further tightening may be warranted.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is Friday’s main Forex focus. Intervention warnings pulled the pair toward 158.10, but U.S. yields preserve support. Holding 157.50 keeps 159.00 exposed. A break below support would show official pressure overcoming the rate gap; a move above resistance would increase intervention risk.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 GMT | Germany GfK Consumer Climate | EUR | High |
| 08:00 GMT | Eurozone M3 Money Supply and Private Loans | EUR | Medium |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Durable Goods Orders | USD | High |
| 13:20 GMT | Fed President Schmid Speech | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations | USD | High |
| 17:00 GMT | Baker Hughes Rig Count | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1389 | Bearish | Fed advantage; European data |
| GBP/USD | 1.3237 | Bearish | UK growth concerns; firm dollar |
| USD/JPY | 158.11 | Bullish, volatile | Yield gap; intervention warnings |
| USD/CAD | 1.4141 | Bullish | Dollar strength versus expensive oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7023 | Bearish | High U.S. yields; RBA outlook |
| NZD/USD | 0.5671 | Bearish | Rate differential; weak momentum |
| USD/CNH | 6.7205 | Bullish, volatile | Summit disappointment; yield gap |
| EUR/JPY | 180.29 | Neutral, volatile | Intervention risk; policy divergence |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $93.58 | Neutral, volatile | Saudi risk; profit-taking |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $106.16 | Bullish, volatile | Houthi attacks; shipping risk |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.184 | Bearish, volatile | Post-inventory selling |
| Gold | $4,312.40 | Neutral, bearish | High yields versus haven demand |
| Silver | $64.21 | Neutral, bearish | Yield pressure; industrial support |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 66,466 | Bullish, volatile | Weak yen; financial shares |
| USDIndex | 100.86 | Bullish | Fed tightening expectations |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1340 | 1.1450 | U.S. data controls continuation |
| GBP/USD | 1.3180 | 1.3310 | Resistance favors sellers |
| USD/JPY | 157.50 | 159.00 | Intervention risk tests breakout |
| USD/CAD | 1.4080 | 1.4200 | Oil may limit dollar upside |
| AUD/USD | 0.6980 | 0.7080 | RBA expectations protect support |
| NZD/USD | 0.5620 | 0.5730 | Dollar strength caps rebounds |
| USD/CNH | 6.6900 | 6.7500 | Summit reaction favors upside |
| EUR/JPY | 179.50 | 181.50 | Official warnings limit advances |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $92.00 | $96.00 | Headline risk preserves volatility |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $104.50 | $108.00 | Supply threats protect support |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.10 | $3.30 | Recovery needs resistance break |
| Gold | $4,260 | $4,360 | High yields limit recovery |
| Silver | $63.00 | $66.00 | Resistance favors sellers |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,500 | 67,000 | Weak yen sustains momentum |
| USDIndex | 100.30 | 101.50 | Durables test weekly advance |
Trader’s Takeaway
Rate repricing and Middle East supply threats dominate. U.S. durable goods and Michigan inflation expectations are the catalysts. USD/JPY above 157.50 preserves upside, but risk rises near 159.00. Brent above $104.50 maintains its premium; EUR/USD below 1.1450 and USDIndex above 100.30 confirm dollar control.
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