LMFX Daily Forex Outlook

Date: 04.11.2026

Market Sentiment

European inflation has added a fresh monetary-policy catalyst to a session dominated by U.S. election results. Euro area annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October from 3.8%, while core inflation held at 2.5%. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened following Democratic gains in Congress, Treasury yields eased, and gold advanced above $4,000. Equities showed substantial regional differences rather than a uniform flight from risk. Attention now turns to whether U.S. employment and services data support the lower-yield narrative. Stronger activity or persistent price pressures could challenge dollar selling, while softer figures would strengthen the case for extending the morning’s moves.

Previous Session Recap

Tuesday’s S&P 500 gained 0.36%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.83%, and the Dow fell 0.38%. Technology strength concealed weaker market breadth. Stronger job openings supported Treasury yields, while Brent settled at $103.60, its lowest close in almost four weeks, as traders assessed diplomatic efforts to end the conflicts affecting energy supplies.

Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines

• Democrats captured both chambers of Congress, prompting investors to reassess fiscal policy and potential scrutiny of the AI sector.
• The dollar index reached a one-month low, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield easing toward 4.92%.
• Euro area inflation reached 4.0%; the release keeps the ECB’s December policy outlook in focus.
• Gold gained approximately 3%, while silver advanced 4.4% in the latest verified metals update.
• Korean equities recovered from sharp intraday losses, while Japanese stocks finished lower.

Forex Focus of the Day

EUR/USD combines broad dollar weakness with the newly released European inflation figures. The pair traded near 1.1236, above published support at 1.1225, with resistance at 1.1270. Holding support would preserve the recovery; a sustained break above resistance would strengthen it. The inflation result matched expectations, making the U.S. data response particularly important for the next move. GBP/USD provides a second policy-sensitive comparison ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision. Sterling remains supported above 1.3434, but its next resistance at 1.3525 requires further buying momentum. Watch Treasury yields alongside both pairs to distinguish sustained dollar weakness from a temporary election reaction.

Key Economic Events

Time (GMT)	Event	Currency	Impact
10:00 GMT	Euro area flash inflation, released: headline 4.0%; core 2.5%	EUR	High
13:15 GMT	U.S. ADP employment	USD	High
13:30 GMT	U.S. and Canadian trade balances	USD, CAD	Medium
14:45 GMT	U.S. final services PMI	USD	Medium
15:00 GMT	U.S. ISM services PMI	USD	High
15:30 GMT	EIA crude oil inventories	USD	Medium

Major Forex Currency Outlooks

Pair	Morning Reference	Bias	Main Driver
EUR/USD	1.1236	Firm	Dollar retreat; European inflation
GBP/USD	1.3475	Firm	BoE positioning; weaker dollar
USD/JPY	158.09	Soft	Lower Treasury yields
USD/CHF	0.8162	Bearish	Defensive franc demand
USD/CAD	1.3946	Bearish	Dollar weakness; trade data ahead
AUD/USD	0.6983	Recovering	Dollar selling; post-RBA positioning
NZD/USD	0.5597	Stabilizing	Modest rebound within a weaker broader trend
EUR/GBP	0.8340	Range-bound	European inflation versus BoE expectations

Energy & Commodities Watch

Precious metals lead the commodity recovery, with gold above $4,000 and silver approaching $52. Oil reversed earlier losses in the verified morning update, supported by supply uncertainty and an industry-reported 5.27-million-barrel U.S. crude inventory draw. The official EIA release will test that inventory signal. Natural gas traded above its $2.895 previous settlement, although its broader monthly performance remains weak.

Instrument	Price Reference	Bias	Main Driver
USOIL, WTI Crude Oil	$96.72 per barrel, futures at 07:30 GMT	Volatile recovery	Supply uncertainty; inventory draw
UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil	$104.36 per barrel, futures at 07:30 GMT	Volatile recovery	Diplomacy versus disruption risks
NGAS, Natural Gas	$2.919 per MMBtu, December futures at 10:00 GMT	Recovering	Rebound from the previous settlement
Gold	$4,046.91 per ounce, spot at 09:28 GMT	Bullish intraday	Weaker dollar; lower yields
Silver	$51.99 per ounce, spot in the same metals update	Bullish intraday	Broad precious-metals demand

Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch

Asia’s closing picture improved substantially from the early selloff. Korea’s KOSPI recovered to finish 0.62% higher after an exceptionally wide session range, while Japan’s Nikkei retained a 1.4% loss. Hong Kong advanced 1.67%. European trading was firmer, but continued weakness in selected Japanese technology names shows that the recovery remains uneven. For the U.S. session, market breadth will help establish whether Tuesday’s technology-led strength is broadening.

Instrument	Price Reference	Bias	Main Driver
Nikkei 225	62,188.63, close	Under pressure	Technology weakness
KOSPI	5,683.80, close	Recovering	Sharp reversal from intraday losses
Hang Seng	23,919.50, close	Firm	Regional equity recovery
DAX	25,995.13, early European trading	Firm	Improving European sentiment

Key Market Technical Zones

Instrument	Support	Resistance	Key Condition
EUR/USD	1.1225	1.1270	Break above resistance strengthens the recovery
GBP/USD	1.3434	1.3525	Hold support to preserve the advance
USD/JPY	158.00	159.00	Break below support increases selling pressure
USD/CHF	0.8110	0.8173	Recover above resistance to ease pressure
USD/CAD	1.3925	1.3992	Break below support extends the decline
AUD/USD	0.6951	0.7005	Clear resistance to strengthen the rebound
NZD/USD	0.5590	0.5630	Hold support to sustain stabilization
EUR/GBP	0.8339	0.8370	Loss of support weakens recovery prospects
USOIL, WTI Crude Oil	$94.02	$100.55	Hold support to preserve the recovery
UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil	$100.53	$106.94	Clear resistance to extend the rebound
NGAS, Natural Gas	$2.852	$2.933	Break above resistance strengthens momentum
Gold	$3,975.31	$4,068.17	Clear resistance to extend the breakout
Silver	$51.10	$52.06	Hold support to preserve the recovery
Nikkei 225	61,277.33	62,290.33	Recover above resistance to improve momentum
KOSPI	5,572.75	5,698.16	Clear resistance to build on the reversal
Hang Seng	23,779.33	23,946.67	Break above resistance extends the advance
DAX	25,700	26,130	Hold support and challenge the recent high

Trader’s Takeaway

European inflation has confirmed continued price pressure, while the dollar’s election-driven retreat still needs economic validation. Watch ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT, particularly the employment and prices components. EUR/USD above 1.1270 would strengthen the recovery; a return below 1.1225 would weaken it. Gold faces resistance at $4,068.17 after its sharp advance. In equities, broader participation would make the rebound more convincing. Oil traders face a separate test at 15:30 GMT, when official inventories can confirm or challenge the industry-reported draw.

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