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Date: 11.11.2026
Market Sentiment
Wednesday’s markets face a tug-of-war between stronger AI earnings and rising borrowing costs. CoreWeave’s results lifted technology futures after Tuesday’s hotter U.S. inflation report drove Treasury yields sharply higher. The dollar remains supported as traders price a December Federal Reserve increase and consider a larger move. Oil is recovering from two-month lows amid continued attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. cash bonds are closed for Veterans Day, while stocks remain open, reducing one source of price discovery. The central question is whether earnings optimism can withstand the higher rate outlook.
Previous Session Recap
Tuesday’s S&P 500 fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.74%, and the Dow declined 0.30%. U.S. headline CPI rose 0.4% in October and core CPI increased 0.3%, both above forecasts. Two-year Treasury yields jumped about 18 basis points. Brent settled at $91.49 and WTI at $86.04.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- CoreWeave raised its annual revenue outlook after quarterly sales reached $3.66 billion, supporting AI sentiment.
- Germany confirmed October harmonized inflation at 2.8%, down from September’s 3.3%.
- Tankers remain exposed to Hormuz attacks despite hopes for diplomatic progress on Iran.
- Asian chip indexes extended their rebound, while Hong Kong lagged. Australia’s ASX 200 closed 0.3% higher.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD remains vulnerable to the repricing of U.S. rates. A break below 1.1150 would reinforce dollar strength, while recovery through 1.1200 would ease pressure. Today’s ECB appearances could test whether European policy expectations offset the U.S. yield advantage.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 GMT | German final inflation, released | EUR | Medium |
| 07:50 GMT | ECB’s Cipollone, digital euro roundtable | EUR | Low |
| 08:15 GMT | Bundesbank President Nagel speaks | EUR | Medium |
| 09:00 GMT | Italian industrial production | EUR | Medium |
| 09:45 GMT | ECB President Lagarde panel | EUR | Medium |
| 23:50 GMT | Japan producer prices | JPY | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
Indicative morning references reflect separate market snapshots.
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1163 | Bearish | Fed tightening repricing supports dollar |
| GBP/USD | 1.3346 | Soft | Higher U.S. rate expectations dominate |
| USD/JPY | 158.82 | Firm | U.S. yields rise sharply |
| USD/CHF | 0.8256 | Firm | Rate differentials outweigh haven demand |
| USD/CAD | 1.4193 | Firm | Dollar strength offsets oil recovery |
| AUD/USD | 0.6875 | Soft | Fed outlook pressures growth-sensitive currency |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8365 | Neutral | German inflation and ECB speakers |
| EUR/AUD | 1.6230 | Firm | ECB remarks meet softer Australian rate outlook |
Energy & Commodities Watch
Energy prices and levels reference December WTI, January Brent and December Henry Hub futures. Metals use spot prices per troy ounce.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $86.20 | Recovering | Shipping attacks restore supply concerns |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $92.01 | Recovering | Hormuz risk limits diplomatic relief |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.294 | Consolidating | Cold-weather demand supports recent rally |
| Gold | $4,057.33 | Rebounding | Recovery after inflation-driven selling |
| Silver | $53.01 | Rebounding | Precious metals recover after selloff |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
U.S. technology leads the recovery attempt. Nasdaq-100 futures rose about 1.4%, outpacing broader U.S. futures. European futures gained around 0.7%. Taiwan and South Korea rose roughly 3% and 2.6% in early snapshots, extending the same chip story.
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA100 (Nasdaq-100 cash) | 27,740.79 | Recovery attempt | CoreWeave results lift technology futures |
| GER40 (DAX cash) | 26,347.45 | Cautious | German inflation and European rate outlook |
Both table prices and technical zones use Tuesday’s cash benchmarks, independently of broker CFD quotes.
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1150 | 1.1200 | Support break extends dollar advance |
| GBP/USD | 1.3330 | 1.3400 | Above resistance eases pressure |
| USD/JPY | 158.65 | 159.00 | Breakout extends yield-driven gains |
| USD/CHF | 0.8240 | 0.8268 | Above Tuesday’s high extends gains |
| USD/CAD | 1.4180 | 1.4200 | Resistance break extends dollar strength |
| AUD/USD | 0.6860 | 0.6890 | Above resistance improves stability |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8360 | 0.8370 | Speakers could resolve the range |
| EUR/AUD | 1.6220 | 1.6270 | Holding support preserves recovery |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $86.00 | $87.00 | Above resistance strengthens rebound |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $89.20 | $93.00 | Above resistance improves recovery |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.28 | $3.32 | Range break sets direction |
| Gold | $4,025 | $4,070 | Above resistance extends recovery |
| Silver | $51.45 | $53.10 | Above session high extends rebound |
| USA100 (Nasdaq-100 cash) | 27,420 | 28,000 | Above Tuesday’s high strengthens recovery |
| GER40 (DAX cash) | 26,300 | 26,630 | Above Tuesday’s high improves momentum |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is that higher expected interest rates overwhelm earnings optimism. Watch Lagarde’s remarks and the U.S. equity opening at 14:30 GMT. Nasdaq-100 cash above 28,000 would strengthen the rebound, while EUR/USD below 1.1150 would confirm renewed dollar pressure.
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