Date: 08 April 2026
Market Sentiment
Global markets are in a clear risk-on relief move after the announcement of a temporary two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The biggest immediate reactions have been a sharp drop in crude oil, a broad pullback in the U.S. dollar, and strong gains across global equities and risk-sensitive currencies. The move has also eased near-term inflation fears, although the broader geopolitical backdrop remains fragile and headline-sensitive.
Previous Session Recap
USD broadly weakened across major FX pairs.
EUR/USD pushed up toward the 1.17 area.
GBP/USD recovered sharply alongside the wider USD selloff.
Gold rallied back above 4,800 as the weaker dollar offset part of the geopolitical de-escalation effect.
Oil collapsed by roughly 13%–16% as traders rapidly removed part of the war premium from crude.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
U.S.–Iran two-week ceasefire triggered a global relief rally and a sharp drop in oil.
The dollar suffered its steepest one-day setback in about a year as safe-haven demand faded.
Risk-sensitive assets and currencies strengthened as fears around the Strait of Hormuz eased.
Markets remain cautious because the ceasefire is temporary and negotiations still need to hold.
Focus of the Day
Whether the risk-on move can extend beyond the first relief reaction.
USD direction after the initial ceasefire-driven unwind.
Oil and gold volatility as markets test how durable the de-escalation really is.
Whether FX follows through or stalls after the first large repricing move.
Key Economic Events
FOMC Minutes
U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Ongoing U.S.–Iran ceasefire and negotiation headlines
Major Currency Outlooks
EUR/USD
Bias: Bullish
Weaker USD and improved risk sentiment are supporting the pair.
The move is now centred closer to the 1.17 area, so the old 1.15–1.16 framing is no longer current.
A sustained hold above 1.1700 would keep upside continuation in play.
GBP/USD
Bias: Bullish-neutral
Sterling has benefited from the broad USD reversal, but underlying UK concerns still keep it less clean than EUR/USD.
The pair has moved back into the 1.34 region, so upside follow-through is possible, though headline sensitivity remains high.
USD/JPY
Bias: Bearish short-term / bullish medium-term recovery risk
The dollar’s safe-haven premium has unwound sharply, pushing USD/JPY lower in the short term.
Even so, yield differentials still matter, so any stabilization in risk sentiment could slow the downside.
AUD/USD
Bias: Bullish
AUD is one of the clearest beneficiaries of the relief/risk-on move.
With the pair trading around 0.707, continued improvement in sentiment keeps the upside favoured while the ceasefire holds.
USD/CAD
Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish
USD weakness is weighing on the pair, but the sharp oil drop limits CAD’s relative advantage.
That creates a more mixed setup than in EUR/USD or AUD/USD, with consolidation likely unless either oil or the dollar makes a fresh directional move.
Commodities Watch
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold has regained strength above 4,800, helped by the weaker dollar and by the fact that the ceasefire is still only temporary.
As long as policy expectations soften and geopolitical risk is not fully gone, dips may continue to attract buyers.
Crude Oil (Brent / WTI)
Crude is undergoing a violent relief correction after the ceasefire announcement, with WTI back near the mid-90s and Brent falling below 100.
Even after the collapse, volatility is likely to remain very high because the ceasefire is fragile and physical supply conditions are still tight.
Key Technical Zones
FX Pairs
| Pair | Support (S1) | Pivot Point | Resistance (R1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1640 | 1.1690 | 1.1745 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3340 | 1.3390 | 1.3465 |
| USD/JPY | 157.40 | 158.15 | 159.10 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7015 | 0.7060 | 0.7105 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3825 | 1.3885 | 1.3940 |
Commodities
| Commodity | Support (S1) | Pivot Point | Resistance (R1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Spot) | $4,790 | $4,820 | $4,850 |
| Silver (Spot) | $76.20 | $77.10 | $78.30 |
| WTI Crude | $94.50 | $96.50 | $98.80 |
| Natural Gas | $2.760 | $2.800 | $2.860 |
These zones are rebuilt around today’s actual market prices rather than the older pre-ceasefire regime.
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant theme today is relief repricing. The ceasefire has triggered a sharp unwind in oil, weakened the dollar, and pushed capital back into equities and risk-sensitive currencies. That said, this is still a fragile, headline-driven environment rather than a fully stable macro reset. Traders are better served by respecting breakout zones and volatility conditions than by assuming a smooth trend day, especially in oil, gold, and the USD complex.
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