Date: 21.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite has improved after ceasefire mediation reports cooled the immediate energy shock, lifting Asian technology shares and pulling crude below Monday’s highs. That relief remains fragile: shipping disruption and security threats around key export routes keep a meaningful oil and inflation premium in place. The dollar has eased slightly, but it remains supported by elevated Treasury yields and expectations that price pressures could constrain policy easing. New Zealand’s stronger inflation print has added a local rate-sensitive bid to the kiwi, while the pound is weighing softer wage dynamics against a calmer gilt market. The tone is cautiously risk-on, with headline sensitivity still high.
Previous Session Recap
Monday’s trading was defensive. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow declined 0.6%, and the Nasdaq eased 0.1% as oil moved higher. Brent settled at $89.22 and WTI at $83.23, raising inflation concern. The dollar index added 0.08%, while spot gold slipped to about $4,007.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Ceasefire mediation hopes have pushed crude lower, though Gulf shipping risks remain unresolved.
- New Zealand’s Q2 inflation reached 4.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and supporting the NZD.
- UK wage growth moderated while payrolls fell, reinforcing a softer domestic labor backdrop.
- KOSPI and Taiwan shares rebounded sharply as semiconductor names recovered from recent selling.
Forex Focus of the Day
GBP/USD is the session’s central pair after United Kingdom labor figures confirmed a cooler wage backdrop. Regular pay growth held at 3.4%, unemployment stayed at 4.9%, and payrolls declined by 4,000 in June. The data reduce near-term wage-pressure concerns, while calmer fiscal messaging has helped gilt yields ease. At 1.3427, sterling needs stable bonds and a softer dollar to retest recent highs. Renewed fiscal concern would favor a return toward support.
Key Economic Events
Times: UTC
| Time | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | Sectoral inflation gauge | NZD | High |
| 06:00 | UK labor market report | GBP | High |
| 08:00 | Euro-area bank lending survey | EUR | Medium |
| 12:30 | Canada CPI, June | CAD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1423 | Mildly bullish | Softer dollar, ECB risk |
| GBP/USD | 1.3427 | Neutral | Cooling UK wages, fiscal focus |
| USD/JPY | 162.50 | Bullish | Yield support, intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.4066 | Neutral | Canada CPI versus oil support |
| AUD/USD | 0.7001 | Mildly bullish | Improved risk appetite |
| NZD/USD | 0.5860 | Bullish | Stronger New Zealand inflation |
| EUR/JPY | 185.82 | Bullish | Wide yield differential |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8506 | Mildly bullish | Softer UK wage momentum |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI | 82.29 | Mildly bearish | Ceasefire hopes versus supply risk |
| UKOIL, Brent | 88.01 | Mildly bearish | Easing risk premium, fragile flows |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | 2.88 | Neutral | Summer demand and LNG risk |
| XAU/USD, Gold | 4,071.59 | Bullish | Haven demand, softer dollar |
| XAG/USD, Silver | 58.96 | Bullish | Precious-metals momentum |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,747.95 | Bullish, volatile | Chip-led rebound and sidecar trigger |
| Taiwan Weighted Index | 44,233 | Bullish, volatile | TSMC-led technology rebound |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1400 | 1.1450 | Above 1.1400, upside holds |
| GBP/USD | 1.3390 | 1.3460 | Recovery capped below 1.3460 |
| USD/JPY | 161.90 | 163.00 | Above 162.00, upside remains |
| USD/CAD | 1.4010 | 1.4100 | Range holds below 1.4100 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6970 | 0.7040 | Hold above 0.6970 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5820 | 0.5900 | Above 0.5820 supports gains |
| EUR/JPY | 185.00 | 186.50 | Above 185.00 favors trend |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8475 | 0.8540 | Above support favors euro |
| USOIL, WTI | 81.00 | 83.80 | Below 83.80 keeps pullback risk |
| UKOIL, Brent | 86.50 | 90.00 | Reclaim 90.00 for renewed upside |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | 2.80 | 2.95 | Hold 2.80 to stabilize |
| XAU/USD, Gold | 4,035 | 4,110 | Above 4,035 preserves bid |
| XAG/USD, Silver | 57.50 | 60.00 | Clear 60.00 for extension |
| KOSPI | 6,600 | 6,800 | Hold 6,600 after rebound |
| Taiwan Weighted Index | 42,450 | 44,800 | Hold support after sharp gap |
Trader’s Takeaway
Energy headlines remain the dominant risk. Canada’s CPI and the market reaction to it are the main scheduled test for the dollar and USD/CAD, while any change in ceasefire prospects can quickly reverse oil, haven, and risk sentiment. Watch whether WTI stays below $83.80 and whether the KOSPI and Taiwan rebound holds above their listed supports. Those confirmations will show whether today’s risk recovery is broadening or merely a relief bounce.
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