Date: 03.07.2026
Market Sentiment
The dollar is heading for its largest weekly loss since April after June payrolls rose just 57,000 versus 110,000 expected, reducing September Fed hike bets. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are gaining, while USD/JPY remains sensitive to renewed Japanese intervention warnings in a holiday session. Gold is higher on lower yields. Oil is subdued as US-Iran peace efforts support Hormuz shipping and supply. European services readings underline a mixed regional growth picture, adding to euro and pound caution.
Previous Session Recap
Weak US jobs data pushed yields and the dollar lower. Gold rallied, while WTI and Brent hit their lowest levels since before February’s Iran conflict.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Driver | Impact |
|---|---|
| US payrolls, 57k | USD softer |
| Eurozone services, 49.4 | EUR support limited |
| UK services, 48.8 | GBP data drag |
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is in focus. It has retreated from 162.84 after Tokyo’s warning, but thin liquidity can magnify moves. Watch 160.50 and 161.52.
Key Economic Events
| Event | Relevance |
| Eurozone services, 49.4 | Slower contraction |
| UK services, 48.8 | Growth concern |
| US holiday | Thin liquidity |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks & Commodities Outlook
| Instrument | Spot | Outlook |
| EUR/USD | 1.1472 | Dollar weakness helps |
| GBP/USD | 1.3369 | Weak PMI limits |
| USD/JPY | 161.06 | Intervention risk |
| Gold | $4,179 | Yield support |
| WTI | $68.63 | Supply weighs |
| Brent | $71.87 | Hormuz focus |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
| EUR/USD | 1.1400 | 1.1500 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3335 | 1.3381 |
| USD/JPY | 160.50 | 161.52 |
| Gold | $4,150 | $4,200 |
| WTI | $68.00 | $70.00 |
| Brent | $71.00 | $73.00 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Dollar weakness leads, but holiday conditions call for risk control. Watch USD/JPY for intervention volatility and oil for any setback in Hormuz shipping or US-Iran diplomacy.
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