Date: 24.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite remains fragile as Middle East supply concerns keep oil elevated, raise inflation risks, and support higher global bond yields. The US dollar is broadly firm, helped by safe-haven demand and expectations that persistent energy inflation could constrain future policy easing. Equity markets are under pressure, with Asian technology shares leading losses after renewed concerns over costly AI investment. The day’s flash PMI releases will test whether business activity can absorb higher energy costs. Traders are watching whether crude oil consolidates below recent highs or resumes its advance, as that move will continue to influence currencies, yields, precious metals, and equity sentiment.
Previous Session Recap
The US dollar strengthened as Treasury yields climbed and energy prices extended their sharp monthly gains. EUR/USD fell to a nine-day low after the European Central Bank held policy steady, while USD/JPY pushed toward multi-decade highs. US equities sold off, led by technology shares, with the USA100 falling more sharply than broader benchmarks. Brent briefly moved above $100 per barrel before easing, while gold declined as higher-rate concerns outweighed safe-haven demand.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Asian equities declined as oil-driven inflation concerns and technology-sector weakness weighed on risk sentiment.
- Brent remained near $100 per barrel after fresh disruption concerns around key energy shipping routes.
- The Japanese yen stayed near multi-decade lows against the dollar, keeping intervention risk in focus.
- European flash PMI data pointed to mixed activity conditions, with France’s private-sector contraction easing.
- Natural gas remained pressured by storage conditions despite broader energy-market volatility.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY remains the central Forex market to watch. The pair is supported by the wide yield differential and firm dollar demand, but its approach toward 164 keeps intervention risk elevated. A further rise in oil prices could reinforce inflation and yield concerns, yet a sharp risk-off move may still generate intermittent yen demand. The pair’s reaction around 164.00 will be important for broader dollar momentum and sentiment across yen crosses.
Key Economic Events
| Time (UTC) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:15 | France Flash PMI | EUR | High |
| 07:30 | Germany Flash PMI | EUR | High |
| 08:00 | Eurozone Flash PMI | EUR | High |
| 08:30 | UK Flash PMI | GBP | High |
| 13:45 | US Flash PMI | USD | High |
| 14:00 | US New Home Sales | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1378 | Bearish | Firm USD and energy-sensitive euro outlook |
| GBP/USD | 1.3350 | Bearish | Dollar strength ahead of UK and US PMIs |
| USD/JPY | 163.68 | Bullish | Higher yields, intervention risk near highs |
| USD/CHF | 0.8170 | Bullish | Dollar demand outweighs defensive franc flows |
| USD/CAD | 1.3820 | Neutral | Oil support limits broader USD strength |
| AUD/USD | 0.7110 | Bearish | Risk aversion offsets commodity support |
| EUR/JPY | 186.40 | Neutral | Euro softness versus weak yen dynamics |
| USD/MXN | 17.52 | Bullish | Strong dollar and cautious risk tone |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $91.06 | Bullish | Supply-route disruption risk, volatile pullback |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $99.55 | Bullish | Geopolitical premium remains substantial |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.89 | Bearish | Storage build and softer seasonal demand |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,037 | Bearish | Higher yields pressure non-yielding bullion |
| Copper | $6.30/lb | Neutral | Tight inventories offset weaker risk sentiment |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,706 | Bearish | Sharp technology-share selloff |
| USA100 | 28,338 | Bearish | AI spending concerns and rising yields |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1360 | 1.1435 | Below 1.1435 keeps pressure lower |
| GBP/USD | 1.3280 | 1.3420 | PMI recovery needed for upside |
| USD/JPY | 162.80 | 164.00 | Break above 164 raises intervention risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8100 | 0.8220 | Hold above 0.8100 supports buyers |
| USD/CAD | 1.3750 | 1.3880 | Oil strength may cap advances |
| AUD/USD | 0.7050 | 0.7170 | Risk recovery needed above resistance |
| EUR/JPY | 185.30 | 187.20 | 187.20 rejection favors consolidation |
| USD/MXN | 17.35 | 17.70 | Above 17.35 preserves upside bias |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | 88.50 | 94.00 | Above 88.50 retains geopolitical premium |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | 96.50 | 102.00 | Break above 102 renews upside momentum |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | 2.80 | 3.05 | Below 3.05 keeps recovery limited |
| XAU/USD, Gold | 3,980 | 4,080 | Yield retreat needed above 4,080 |
| Copper | 6.18 | 6.40 | Hold above 6.18 supports range trade |
| KOSPI | 6,550 | 7,100 | Below 7,100 keeps selling pressure active |
| USA100 | 27,800 | 28,950 | Recovery above 28,950 improves tone |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk remains a renewed oil-driven inflation shock, which is lifting yields and challenging risk assets. Flash PMIs will show whether higher energy costs are already affecting activity expectations. Watch Brent near $100, USD/JPY around 164.00, and whether the USA100 can stabilize above 27,800. Those levels should help determine whether the current dollar strength and equity weakness extend into the US session.
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