Date: 10.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautious as Brent holds above $100, keeping inflation pressure elevated while long-term U.S. yields approach their highest levels since 2023. The ECB is widely expected to raise rates today, placing EUR/USD at the center of policy volatility just before U.S. producer inflation and jobless claims. The yen remains supported by expectations for a BOJ increase next week, although rising Treasury yields limit its advance. Asian equities are mixed to lower, with energy costs and geopolitics offsetting resilient semiconductor demand.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street declined Wednesday as oil and Treasury yields pressured risk assets. The Dow fell 0.77%, the S&P 500 lost 0.48%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.64%. Energy shares advanced 1.1%, while Meta gained 6.6%. The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since November 2023.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Brent remained above $100 after Iran reported attacks on 10 ships.
- The euro held near 1.1640 before an expected 25-basis-point ECB rate increase.
- USD/JPY traded near 153.63 as BOJ tightening expectations competed with elevated U.S. yields.
- USD/INR approached 95.30 as expensive oil pressured the rupee.
- KOSPI held near 7,000 after a powerful three-session semiconductor rally.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD is Thursday’s main Forex focus. The ECB decision at 12:15 GMT precedes U.S. producer inflation at 12:30 GMT and Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 12:45 GMT. Holding above 1.1600 supports a test of 1.1680. A softer policy message or stronger U.S. inflation would favor a reversal.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 GMT | Germany CPI, Final | EUR | Medium |
| 12:15 GMT | ECB Interest Rate Decision | EUR | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Producer Price Index | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | USD | High |
| 12:45 GMT | ECB Press Conference | EUR | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Natural Gas Inventories | USD | Medium |
| 16:00 GMT | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1640 | Neutral, bullish | ECB decision; U.S. PPI |
| GBP/USD | 1.3552 | Neutral | U.S. inflation; global yields |
| USD/JPY | 153.63 | Neutral, bearish | BOJ expectations; U.S. yields |
| USD/CHF | 0.8099 | Neutral | Rate pressure; haven demand |
| USD/CAD | 1.3809 | Bullish, volatile | Trade tension versus expensive oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7214 | Neutral, bearish | Defensive Asia; higher energy costs |
| EUR/JPY | 178.58 | Neutral, volatile | ECB-BOJ policy repricing |
| USD/INR | 95.30 | Bullish, volatile | $100 oil; RBI intervention |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $95.58 | Bullish, volatile | Shipping attacks; tight flows |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $100.50 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz and Red Sea risks |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.79 | Bearish | Two-week low; inventory outlook |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,456 | Neutral, bullish | Geopolitics versus higher yields |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $67.98 | Neutral, bearish | Profit-taking; dollar sensitivity |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,038 | Neutral, volatile | Three-session chip rally; oil risk |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,029 | Neutral, bearish | Stronger yen; profit-taking |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 | 1.1680 | ECB and PPI determine break |
| GBP/USD | 1.3500 | 1.3600 | U.S. inflation controls direction |
| USD/JPY | 152.50 | 154.50 | BOJ expectations cap rebounds |
| USD/CHF | 0.8050 | 0.8150 | Range awaits rate confirmation |
| USD/CAD | 1.3750 | 1.3860 | Trade headlines test resistance |
| AUD/USD | 0.7160 | 0.7260 | Risk appetite guides recovery |
| EUR/JPY | 177.00 | 180.00 | Policy divergence drives volatility |
| USD/INR | 95.00 | 95.50 | RBI action may limit upside |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $93.00 | $98.00 | Conflict protects support |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $99.00 | $104.00 | Hold $100 preserves momentum |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.72 | $2.90 | Inventory data tests recovery |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,380 | $4,520 | Yields limit haven advance |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $66.50 | $69.50 | Resistance caps recovery |
| KOSPI | 6,900 | 7,150 | Chip momentum must offset oil |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 64,000 | 66,000 | Strong yen limits upside |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is $100 Brent reinforcing inflation and yield pressure. The ECB decision, U.S. PPI, and Lagarde’s guidance provide the main policy test. EUR/USD above 1.1600 preserves upside potential, while USD/JPY below 154.50 maintains yen strength. Brent above $99 and gold above $4,380 confirm geopolitical support; Asian equities require resistance breaks.
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