Date: 11.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is mixed as traders balance a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia message against renewed energy-supply anxiety and intervention risk in the yen. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% but said another increase remains possible, supporting the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns before Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report. Asian equities were uneven, while the yen weakened toward the psychologically important 160.00 area. Volatility may remain headline-driven, with defensive positioning favored around oil and Japanese currency levels.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street eased from record territory on Monday: the S&P 500 and Dow slipped 0.1%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Oil gained about 5% as hopes for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. The Canadian dollar held near an eight-week high as stronger crude prices offset broad U.S. dollar firmness.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The RBA held rates at 4.35% and kept another increase on the table as inflation risks persist.
- USD/JPY climbed to 159.20 as the impact of recent coordinated intervention continued to fade.
- Brent and WTI advanced more than 2% as U.S.-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked.
- South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.7%, helped by a 4.1% rise in Samsung Electronics.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is the central focus. The pair is approaching 160.00, where intervention risk and thin holiday liquidity could amplify reversals. Traders should monitor official commentary, oil-driven inflation expectations, and whether price can hold above 159.00. A sustained break of 160.00 would strengthen the bullish trend, while rejection below that threshold could trigger rapid profit-taking.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 GMT | RBA Rate Decision | AUD | High |
| 05:30 GMT | RBA Press Conference | AUD | High |
| 10:00 GMT | NFIB Small Business Optimism | USD | Medium |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. Existing Home Sales | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1537 | Neutral | Firm dollar; U.S. inflation wait |
| GBP/USD | 1.3502 | Neutral | UK growth expectations |
| USD/JPY | 159.20 | Bullish, volatile | Yield gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.3940 | Bearish | Oil strength supports CAD |
| AUD/USD | 0.7054 | Bullish | Hawkish RBA hold |
| NZD/USD | 0.5789 | Neutral | Regional risk tone |
| AUD/JPY | 112.30 | Bullish, volatile | RBA-BOJ policy divergence |
| EUR/JPY | 183.66 | Bullish, volatile | Broad yen weakness |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $84.04 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz supply disruption |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $89.64 | Bullish, volatile | U.S.-Iran talks impasse |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.79 | Bullish | Warmer forecasts; LNG flows |
| Gold | $4,365.65 | Bullish | Geopolitical hedging |
| Silver | $64.49 | Neutral | Profit-taking after rally |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,345.53 | Bullish | Samsung-led technology strength |
| AUS200 | 9,250.60 | Neutral | RBA caution; resource support |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1490 | 1.1590 | Above 1.1590 improves momentum |
| GBP/USD | 1.3440 | 1.3560 | Hold 1.3440 preserves range |
| USD/JPY | 158.00 | 160.00 | Breakout risks official response |
| USD/CAD | 1.3890 | 1.4000 | Below 1.3890 favors CAD |
| AUD/USD | 0.7000 | 0.7100 | Hold 0.7000 supports bulls |
| NZD/USD | 0.5740 | 0.5840 | Range break sets direction |
| AUD/JPY | 111.20 | 113.00 | Above 113.00 extends advance |
| EUR/JPY | 182.30 | 184.50 | Hold 182.30 sustains uptrend |
| WTI Crude Oil | $81.00 | $85.00 | Above $85.00 targets new highs |
| Brent Crude Oil | $87.00 | $91.50 | Headlines control breakout risk |
| Natural Gas | $2.68 | $2.90 | Hold $2.68 maintains rebound |
| Gold | $4,300 | $4,435 | Break confirms renewed upside |
| Silver | $62.80 | $66.00 | Above $66.00 restores momentum |
| KOSPI | 6,250 | 6,450 | Chip gains must broaden |
| AUS200 | 9,180 | 9,320 | RBA reaction defines range |
Trader’s Takeaway
Oil headlines and USD/JPY near 160.00 are today’s dominant volatility risks. The hawkish RBA message favors AUD/USD and AUD/JPY while their listed supports hold, but abrupt yen intervention remains a two-way threat. Confirmation should come from crude sustaining its breakout and USD/JPY either clearing or rejecting 160.00.
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