Date: 12.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Markets are cautiously positioned before the U.S. CPI release, which could decide whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September. The dollar is slightly firmer, while USD/JPY is pressing toward the intervention-sensitive 160.00 region despite rising expectations for a September Bank of Japan increase. Energy risk remains the second dominant driver: new shipping attacks and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations have lifted oil for a sixth session, sustaining inflation concerns. Equity sentiment is mixed, although a powerful semiconductor rally pushed South Korea’s KOSPI sharply higher. Gold and silver are advancing as geopolitical hedging offsets pressure from the firmer dollar.
Previous Session Recap
U.S. equities retreated Tuesday as investors reduced exposure before inflation data. The S&P 500 and Dow each lost 0.3%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. WTI and Brent settled more than $1 higher at their strongest closes since July 31. The Canadian dollar reached a two-month high as firmer oil improved its terms-of-trade support.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar index edged up to 99.85 before U.S. headline and core inflation figures.
- USD/JPY rose to 159.38 even as Japanese bond markets priced a greater chance of a September BOJ increase.
- Brent approached $90 after new attacks on vessels intensified concern about Middle East supply routes.
- The KOSPI surged 4.0% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each gained more than 7%.
- NZD/USD weakened after New Zealand’s prime minister survived a party confidence vote.
Forex Focus of the Day
The U.S. dollar is today’s main focus because CPI can materially reprice September Fed expectations. Headline CPI is forecast at 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, with core inflation expected at 0.2% monthly. A hotter reading would favor dollar strength, particularly against the euro and pound. A soft report could weaken USD/JPY, although geopolitical demand for dollars and yen intervention risk may create sharp two-way moves.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 GMT | MBA Mortgage Applications | USD | Low |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. CPI and Core CPI | USD | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Petroleum Status Report | USD | High |
| 18:00 GMT | U.S. Federal Budget | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1534 | Neutral, volatile | U.S. CPI risk |
| GBP/USD | 1.3505 | Neutral, volatile | Dollar repricing potential |
| USD/JPY | 159.38 | Bullish, volatile | Rate gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8125 | Mildly bullish | Dollar and haven demand |
| AUD/USD | 0.7056 | Neutral | Hawkish RBA; CPI caution |
| NZD/USD | 0.5867 | Bearish | Political uncertainty |
| EUR/JPY | 183.89 | Bullish, volatile | Broad yen weakness |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2027 | Bullish | RBA support; New Zealand politics |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $83.92 | Bullish, volatile | Shipping attacks; inventory risk |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $89.66 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz closure threat |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.79 | Neutral | Strong supply limits rebound |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,409 | Bullish | Geopolitical hedging |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $66.04 | Bullish | Precious-metals momentum |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,597.90 | Bullish, volatile | Semiconductor surge |
| USA500 | 7,740.3 | Neutral, volatile | CPI and rate expectations |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1490 | 1.1580 | CPI decides range break |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450 | 1.3560 | Hold 1.3450 preserves range |
| USD/JPY | 158.20 | 160.00 | Break risks official response |
| USD/CHF | 0.8080 | 0.8160 | Above 0.8160 confirms strength |
| AUD/USD | 0.7010 | 0.7100 | RBA support must hold |
| NZD/USD | 0.5820 | 0.5910 | Below 0.5820 extends decline |
| EUR/JPY | 182.50 | 185.00 | Intervention risk caps upside |
| AUD/NZD | 1.1970 | 1.2080 | Hold 1.2000 favors buyers |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $82.00 | $85.00 | Inventory data tests advance |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $88.00 | $91.00 | Above $91.00 extends rally |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.72 | $2.88 | Range break sets momentum |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,350 | $4,450 | CPI reaction controls breakout |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $64.50 | $67.50 | Hold support sustains momentum |
| KOSPI | 6,450 | 6,700 | Chip rally must consolidate |
| USA500 | 7,680 | 7,800 | CPI determines record test |
Trader’s Takeaway
U.S. CPI is the decisive catalyst, while Middle East shipping headlines remain the dominant external risk. Watch whether USD/JPY clears 160.00, oil holds above support, and gold sustains $4,350. Simultaneous dollar and crude breakouts would signal renewed inflation concern; rejection at resistance would favor consolidation.
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