Date: 11.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment remains defensive before U.S. consumer inflation, although oil’s retreat from four-month highs has briefly stabilized bonds and equity futures. Brent remains above $105 and the U.S. 10-year yield is near 5%, sustaining pressure for tighter global policy after the ECB raised rates Thursday. The dollar is near its weekly high, while stronger Japanese wholesale inflation supports expectations for a BOJ increase next week. Better-than-expected UK growth is helping sterling, but sharp losses across Asian equities show that energy and rate risks still dominate.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street fell for a fourth session Thursday as Brent jumped 6% and Treasury yields surged. The S&P 500 lost 0.58%, the Dow declined 0.60%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.65%. U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting expectations for a Federal Reserve increase next week.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Brent reached $109.97 before retreating as shipping risks intensified.
- Japan’s wholesale inflation rose 7.6%, reinforcing expectations for a 25-basis-point BOJ increase.
- The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% and left the door open to further tightening.
- UK GDP grew 0.4% in July, beating forecasts for no monthly growth.
- The RBI sold dollars as USD/INR approached 95.80 under oil and yield pressure.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is Friday’s main Forex focus. The pair balances U.S. yields near 5% against firm expectations for a BOJ increase next week. Japanese wholesale inflation and official U.S.-Japan coordination support the yen. Holding below 155.00 favors renewed pressure toward 152.80; hotter U.S. CPI could trigger a resistance test by strengthening the dollar and Treasury yields.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 GMT | UK GDP and Industrial Production | GBP | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. CPI and Core CPI | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Real Earnings | USD | Medium |
| 14:00 GMT | Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary | USD | High |
| 17:00 GMT | Baker Hughes Rig Count | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1609 | Neutral, bearish | Dollar strength; post-ECB pricing |
| GBP/USD | 1.3520 | Neutral, bullish | Strong UK GDP; U.S. CPI |
| USD/JPY | 154.11 | Bearish, volatile | BOJ expectations; U.S. yields |
| USD/CAD | 1.3839 | Bullish, volatile | Dollar demand versus expensive oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7167 | Neutral, bearish | Asian selloff; elevated yields |
| NZD/USD | 0.5827 | Neutral, bullish | Rising New Zealand yields |
| EUR/JPY | 178.99 | Bearish, volatile | ECB-BOJ policy repricing |
| USD/INR | 95.71 | Bullish, volatile | Oil shock; RBI intervention |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $100.46 | Bullish, volatile | Restricted shipping; profit-taking |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $105.90 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz and Red Sea disruption |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.82 | Neutral, bearish | Storage outlook; mild demand |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,352 | Neutral, bearish | Near-5% yields; CPI risk |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $63.93 | Bearish, volatile | Weekly decline; rate pressure |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 64,011.34 | Bearish, volatile | 2.2% yield-driven decline |
| KOSPI | 6,909.91 | Bearish, volatile | Semiconductor profit-taking |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1560 | 1.1660 | CPI controls post-ECB direction |
| GBP/USD | 1.3460 | 1.3580 | UK growth protects support |
| USD/JPY | 152.80 | 155.00 | BOJ expectations cap rebounds |
| USD/CAD | 1.3780 | 1.3900 | Dollar and oil determine break |
| AUD/USD | 0.7120 | 0.7220 | Risk aversion limits recovery |
| NZD/USD | 0.5770 | 0.5880 | Yield support needs confirmation |
| EUR/JPY | 177.50 | 180.50 | Yen strength favors downside |
| USD/INR | 95.20 | 96.20 | RBI action tests resistance |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $98.00 | $104.00 | Hold $100 sustains premium |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $103.00 | $110.00 | Shipping risk protects support |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.72 | $2.92 | Demand must clear resistance |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,300 | $4,420 | Hot CPI would pressure support |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $62.50 | $65.50 | Resistance favors sellers |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 63,000 | 65,200 | Bond selloff limits recovery |
| KOSPI | 6,800 | 7,050 | Chip demand must restore momentum |
Trader’s Takeaway
U.S. CPI is decisive after oil and producer prices strengthened the case for tighter policy. USD/JPY below 155.00 preserves yen momentum, while GBP/USD above 1.3460 keeps the UK response constructive. Brent above $103 maintains the inflation premium. Gold below $4,420 and Asian indices remain vulnerable if yields rise again.
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