Date: 14.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is defensive as renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure lift Brent above $107 while a sharp AI-sector selloff pressures Asian and European technology shares. The dollar is firmer and Treasury yields remain elevated after stronger U.S. inflation raised the probability of a Federal Reserve increase this week to roughly 86%. The yen is pausing near a seven-month high ahead of an almost fully priced BOJ increase. Canada’s inflation report provides today’s main scheduled catalyst, with oil strength and global rate expectations creating competing forces for the Canadian dollar.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street rebounded Friday despite stronger inflation. The S&P 500 gained 0.86%, the Nasdaq rose 0.96%, and the Dow advanced 0.98%. U.S. consumer prices increased 0.4% in August, lifting near-term Federal Reserve tightening expectations. Brent fell almost 3% Friday but still gained about 9% for the week.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Houthi drone strikes temporarily closed Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, intensifying oil-supply concerns.
- Brent climbed above $107 and WTI exceeded $102 as attacks threatened Gulf and Red Sea routes.
- The dollar index rose to 99.34 as markets priced an 86% chance of a Federal Reserve increase.
- KOSPI dropped 3.3% as safety warnings from leading AI executives triggered semiconductor selling.
- The yen eased to 154.03 per dollar, but remained near last week’s seven-month high.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/CAD is Monday’s central Forex focus before Canadian CPI at 12:30 GMT. Softer inflation would reinforce expectations that Canadian policy can remain less restrictive, favoring a move toward 1.3950. A stronger reading, combined with oil above $102, could support the Canadian dollar and return the pair toward 1.3780. Confirmation requires a sustained break beyond either boundary.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 GMT | Japan Industrial Production, Final | JPY | Medium |
| 06:30 GMT | Swiss Producer and Import Prices | CHF | Medium |
| 12:30 GMT | Canada CPI and Core Measures | CAD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | Canada Manufacturing Sales | CAD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1565 | Bearish | Firmer dollar; Fed expectations |
| GBP/USD | 1.3503 | Neutral, bearish | Dollar strength; BOE caution |
| USD/JPY | 154.03 | Neutral, volatile | Fed-BOJ policy decisions |
| USD/CHF | 0.8181 | Bullish | U.S. yields; Swiss prices |
| USD/CAD | 1.3874 | Neutral, volatile | Canadian CPI versus oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7151 | Bearish | Asian technology selloff |
| EUR/CAD | 1.6047 | Neutral, volatile | Canadian inflation risk |
| CAD/JPY | 111.06 | Neutral, volatile | CPI; oil; BOJ pricing |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $102.93 | Bullish, volatile | Saudi pipeline shutdown |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $107.54 | Bullish, volatile | Gulf and Red Sea disruption |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.904 | Bullish | Broader energy-risk premium |
| Gold | $4,321.26 | Bearish, volatile | Higher rates versus geopolitics |
| Silver | $63.79 | Bearish, volatile | Yield pressure; risk reduction |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,684.37 | Bearish, volatile | 3.3% AI-chip selloff |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 63,492.99 | Bearish | SoftBank plunge; stronger yen |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1520 | 1.1620 | Dollar strength caps rebounds |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450 | 1.3560 | Resistance favors sellers |
| USD/JPY | 152.90 | 155.20 | BOJ guidance decides breakout |
| USD/CHF | 0.8120 | 0.8240 | Yields support advances |
| USD/CAD | 1.3780 | 1.3950 | CPI determines range break |
| AUD/USD | 0.7100 | 0.7210 | Risk aversion limits recovery |
| EUR/CAD | 1.5960 | 1.6140 | Canadian CPI drives direction |
| CAD/JPY | 110.00 | 112.20 | Oil and CPI test resistance |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $100.00 | $106.00 | Pipeline outage protects support |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $104.00 | $110.00 | Supply threats sustain premium |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.82 | $3.00 | Energy rally tests resistance |
| Gold | $4,280 | $4,380 | Rate expectations cap recovery |
| Silver | $62.50 | $65.50 | Below resistance favors sellers |
| KOSPI | 6,550 | 6,900 | Chip weakness controls direction |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 63,000 | 64,500 | AI selling limits rebounds |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is a prolonged energy shock reinforcing global rate increases while technology shares unwind. Canadian CPI is today’s clearest scheduled catalyst. USD/CAD outside 1.3780–1.3950 would confirm direction, while Brent above $104 preserves supply risk. KOSPI below 6,900 and gold below $4,380 maintain defensive signals.
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