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US and Canadian growth scramble to outpace consumer price index

According to Statistics Canada Real gross domestic product (GDP) edged up (+0.1%) in October, following a +0.2% uptick in September. Growth in services-producing industries (+0.3%) was partially offset by a decline in goods-producing industries (-0.7%), as 11 of 20 industrial sectors increased in October.

Advance information indicates that real GDP increased 0.1% in November. Increases in accommodation and food services and wholesale trade were partially offset by declines in construction as well as mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. Owing to its preliminary nature, this estimate will be updated on January 31, 2023, with the release of the official GDP data for November 2022.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.8% year over year in November, following a 6.9% increase in October.

Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% on a yearly basis in November, following a gain of 5.3% in October.

Slower price growth for gasoline and furniture was partially offset by faster growth in mortgage interest cost and rent.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in November following a 0.7% gain in October. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4%.

In the US Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.

The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9 percent. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.

The increase in real GDP for the third quarter reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased.

The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. Within exports of goods, the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials (notably nondurable goods), “other” exports of goods, and nonautomotive capital goods. Within exports of services, the increase was led by “other” business services and travel.

Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in November and real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent.

The increase in current-dollar personal income in November primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal income receipts on assets. The increase in compensation reflected increases in private wages and salaries in both services-producing industries and goods-producing industries.