Date: Wednesday, 4 March 2026
Market Sentiment
Risk-Off / Bullish USD
The global market is dominated by a “flight to safety” as the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran enters its fifth day.
Equity markets in Asia and Europe are under significant pressure, while the U.S. Dollar remains the primary beneficiary of safe-haven flows.
High energy prices are fueling inflation fears, complicating the outlook for central bank rate cuts.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.9% and breaking below its 100-day moving average.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) staged a modest recovery, supported by a combination of geopolitical tension and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.
Brent crude settled at its highest level since January 2025, though it retreated slightly from intraday peaks following President Trump’s announcement regarding U.S. Navy escorts in the Strait of Hormuz.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Middle East Escalation: Israel launched further strikes on Iranian leadership; Iran targeted regional economic centers, keeping energy markets on edge.
- USD/INR Record Low: The Indian Rupee hit an all-time low of 92.18 against the USD due to surging import costs and capital outflows.
- Trump on Oil: President Trump pledged U.S. Navy protection for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and insurance support for regional shipping.
- Central Bank Independence: Focus shifts to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearings and reports of potential leadership changes at the ECB.
Focus of the Day
The primary focus remains the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf and its impact on oil supply. Traders are also bracing for a “data-heavy” U.S. session, specifically the ADP Private Payrolls, which will serve as a critical lead-in to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
| Time (GMT) | Event | Details / Forecast |
| 07:30 | Switzerland CPI Inflation (Feb) | — |
| 09:00 | Eurozone Final Services PMI | — |
| 13:15 | US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | Exp: 50K | Prev: 22K |
| 15:00 | US ISM Services PMI | Exp: 53.5 | Prev: 53.8 |
| 15:30 | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | — |
| 19:00 | Federal Reserve Beige Book | — |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
- EUR/USD: Trading near 1.1600. The pair is weighed down by the safe-haven USD and rising Eurozone inflation (1.9%). Resistance sits at 1.1650, while a break below 1.1570 could trigger a move toward 1.1500.
- GBP/USD: Testing the 1.3340 support level. The British Pound is under pressure following the UK Spring Statement and shifting Bank of England rate cut expectations (currently priced at 72% for March).
- USD/JPY: Trending toward the 157.70–158.00 zone. Despite the BoJ’s tightening bias, the JPY is struggling against the “King Dollar” and high energy costs. Intervention talk may resurface if 160.00 is approached.
Commodities Watch
- Gold: Holding steady near $5,133/oz. Geopolitical risk is providing a strong floor, with technical targets eyes at $5,200 if tensions escalate further.
- Crude Oil (Brent): Trading near $82.50. Goldman Sachs has raised its Q2 forecast to $76, warning that a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices toward $100.
Key Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support 1 | Support 2 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1575 | 1.1540 | 1.1650 | 1.1690 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3340 | 1.3280 | 1.3450 | 1.3520 |
| USD/JPY | 154.50 | 153.20 | 157.70 | 158.50 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3620 | 1.3550 | 1.3695 | 1.3740 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6980 | 0.6910 | 0.7040 | 0.7085 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5835 | 0.5790 | 0.5960 | 0.6010 |
| Gold (XAU) | $5,110 | $5,080 | $5,250 | $5,375 |
| WTI Oil | $74.50 | $72.00 | $78.45 | $80.20 |
Trader’s Takeaway
In a market defined by “War and Inflation,” the U.S. Dollar remains the path of least resistance.
- Watch the 13:15 GMT ADP print closely; a beat would further cement the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance, adding fuel to the USD rally.
- Risk-sensitive currencies (AUD, NZD) and energy-dependent currencies (INR, JPY) are likely to remain the most vulnerable.
About LMFX
LMFX is a trusted global brokerage providing access to Forex, commodities, indices, and precious metals. Known for its fast execution and competitive spreads, LMFX offers the MT4 trading platform, flexible account types, and a variety of funding options. With dedicated customer support and a focus on transparency and reliability, LMFX serves traders at all experience levels worldwide.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs involves risk and may not be suitable for all traders. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Participation in any prop trading evaluation does not guarantee funded account status or profitability. Always trade responsibly.
