Date: 02.04.2026
Market Sentiment
Markets turned defensive again after President Trump signalled more strikes on Iran, reversing the prior session’s relief rally. The three dominant drivers today are: renewed Middle East escalation, another sharp leg higher in oil above $100, and a stronger U.S. dollar as traders cut risk before the Easter break and Friday’s U.S. payrolls report. Rising yields are adding pressure to equities and non-yielding assets, while energy-importing economies look more vulnerable than the U.S. in the immediate term.
Previous Session Recap
Wednesday saw a brief rebound on hopes of de-escalation, but that move faded fast after the latest U.S. rhetoric. European stocks, U.S. futures and Asian indices rolled over, while energy outperformed.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Headline | Market impact |
|---|---|
| Dollar index climbed to 100.09 | Broad USD support returned |
| Euro slipped to 1.1533 | EUR/USD remained under pressure |
| Sterling fell to 1.3210 | GBP/USD weakened with risk sentiment |
| Yen hovered near 160 per dollar | Intervention risk stayed elevated |
| Brent rose to around 107.69–108.00 | Energy markets priced in supply risk |
| WTI advanced to 106.52 | Oil-sensitive FX stayed in focus |
Forex Focus of the Day
Today’s focus is whether U.S. data confirms resilience while oil keeps inflation risks elevated. Initial jobless claims, trade balance and EIA natural gas inventories are due today, while Friday’s payrolls report remains the bigger event risk. Euro traders are also digesting fresh euro area unemployment data and sticky inflation concerns.
Key Economic Events
| Event | Time* |
|---|---|
| U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | 08:30 ET |
| U.S. Trade Balance | 08:30 ET |
| U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventory | 10:30 ET |
| U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri) | 08:30 ET |
| *US Eastern Time. |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Instrument | Spot | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1533 | Bearish below 1.1600 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3210 | Bearish while USD demand holds |
| USD/JPY | near 160.00 | Bullish, but intervention risk is high |
| AUD/USD | softer overnight | Bearish on risk-off tone and stronger USD |
| USD/CAD | firmer | Bullish while oil shock supports inflation fears more than CAD sentiment |
| USD/CHF | firmer | Mild bullish bias on dollar strength |
Commodities Outlook
| Instrument | Spot | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | 4622.59 | Volatile, slightly pressured by USD/yields |
| Brent | 107.69–108.00 | Bullish on supply disruption risk |
| WTI | 106.52 | Bullish while escalation persists |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1500 | 1.1600 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3150 | 1.3300 |
| USD/JPY | 159.00 | 160.50 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6420 | 0.6500 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3720 | 1.3820 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9080 | 0.9160 |
| XAU/USD | 4580 | 4680 |
| Brent | 105.00 | 110.00 |
| WTI | 103.00 | 108.50 |
Trader’s Takeaway
The path of least resistance still favours oil and the dollar unless headlines turn decisively toward de-escalation. For FX, EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain vulnerable, while USD/JPY is strong but increasingly sensitive to official pushback near 160. Commodity traders should expect wide intraday swings.
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