Date: 06.07.2026
Market Sentiment
The dollar begins the week defensive after Friday’s weaker June jobs report reduced expectations of further Fed tightening. EUR/USD holds near 1.1424 and GBP/USD trades around 1.3342, while USD/JPY is testing 162.16 and remains highly sensitive to any signal from Japanese officials. Energy is the second key driver: OPEC+ plans 188,000 bpd of additional August supply, yet talks over fully reopening Hormuz remain stalled. This keeps WTI near $67.85 and Brent near $71.88, while gold holds near $4,163 ahead of US services data.
Previous Session Recap
Friday’s softer US jobs data pushed the dollar lower. EUR and GBP recovered, while the yen stayed near multidecade lows.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Driver | Market read |
|---|---|
| USD | Near two-week low |
| JPY | Intervention watch |
| Oil | More supply, Hormuz risk |
Forex Focus of the Day
US ISM Services is the key USD catalyst. A weaker reading may extend the pullback, while firm prices can limit it.
Key Economic Events
| Event | Consensus |
| EZ retail sales | +0.3% m/m |
| US ISM Services | 54.2 |
| Waller, Lagarde, Mann | Speeches |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks & Commodities Outlook
| Instrument | Spot | Focus |
| EUR/USD | 1.1424 | US data, ECB |
| GBP/USD | 1.3342 | UK construction |
| USD/JPY | 162.16 | Intervention risk |
| Gold | $4,163 | Rates outlook |
| WTI | $67.85 | OPEC+ supply |
| Brent | $71.88 | Hormuz headlines |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
| EUR/USD | 1.1415 | 1.1445 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3325 | 1.3360 |
| USD/JPY | 161.30 | 162.35 |
| Gold | $4,145 | $4,205 |
| WTI | $67.80 | $69.30 |
| Brent | $71.70 | $72.50 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Keep positioning light before ISM and central-bank remarks. USD/JPY faces the greatest headline risk; oil needs confirmation that supply gains outweigh Hormuz risks.
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