Date: 07.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Renewed shipping-security concerns near the Strait of Hormuz are lifting oil and restoring an inflation risk premium. This supports the dollar and US yields while limiting demand for gold. Yet last week’s weak US employment data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, containing the dollar recovery. USD/JPY near 162.00 remains a closely watched foreign-exchange focus, with traders alert to possible Japanese intervention. US trade figures and Federal Reserve commentary may set the tone before tomorrow’s meeting minutes.
Previous Session Recap
US shares lifted the S&P 500 to 7,537.43. Oil rose, gold fell, dollar steadied.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
| Theme | Effect |
|---|---|
| Hormuz attacks | Oil higher |
| Yen near lows | Intervention |
| Fed minutes ahead | Dollar cautious |
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY near 161.88 after a 162.84 peak. Yield gaps support it, but a retest could raise intervention speculation and volatility.
Key Economic Events
| Event | Focus |
|---|---|
| US trade balance | Dollar |
| Fed Governor Bowman | Rates |
| Wednesday FOMC minutes | Policy |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Instrument | Spot | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1431 | Range |
| GBP/USD | 1.3401 | Firm |
| USD/JPY | 161.88 | Intervention |
| AUD/USD | 0.6944 | Risk |
Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Spot | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,132 | Yields |
| WTI | $69.44 | Risk support |
| Brent | $73.03 | Hormuz |
Key Forex Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1400 | 1.1480 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3350 | 1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 160.80 | 162.84 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6900 | 0.7000 |
| Gold | $4,080 | $4,175 |
| WTI | $67.80 | $70.50 |
| Brent | $71.30 | $74.20 |
Trader’s Takeaway
Watch oil and USD/JPY. Higher crude supports yields and the dollar, but softer US rate expectations may cap gains. Define risk around headline moves.
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