Date: 13.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is moderately positive after mild U.S. consumer inflation reduced the probability of a September Federal Reserve increase, supporting technology shares across Asia. Attention now turns to U.S. producer prices and jobless claims for confirmation that inflation and labor pressures are easing. The dollar remains firm near 100.00, while the yen is supported by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan could tighten next month. Oil is retreating as a record-sized U.S. inventory build and weaker demand forecasts offset unresolved Middle East supply risks. Sterling is steady after stronger-than-expected monthly UK growth.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street advanced Wednesday after U.S. CPI rose 0.1% in July and annual inflation eased to 3.4%. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq added 0.5%, while the Dow finished slightly lower. Oil ended a five-session advance as U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly jumped 17.4 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since January 2023.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Markets reduced the implied probability of a September Fed increase to roughly 34% after mild CPI.
- USD/JPY held near 159.33 as higher Japanese producer prices strengthened near-term BOJ tightening expectations.
- UK GDP expanded 0.3% in June, beating expectations for no growth, while second-quarter growth reached 0.4%.
- NZD/USD fell to a two-week low after New Zealand inflation expectations came in unexpectedly weak.
- The KOSPI surged about 4% for a second session as AI demand lifted major semiconductor shares.
Forex Focus of the Day
GBP/USD is today’s main Forex focus after resilient UK growth data and before U.S. producer inflation. June output exceeded forecasts, but second-half growth risks and high energy costs limit the pound’s upside. A soft U.S. PPI report could help GBP/USD recover toward 1.3550, while an upside surprise would reinforce dollar strength and expose support near 1.3430. Traders should also monitor GBP/JPY because shifting BOJ expectations increase cross-rate volatility.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 GMT | UK GDP and Industrial Production | GBP | High |
| 12:15 GMT | Cleveland Fed President Hammack Speaks | USD | Medium |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. PPI and Core PPI | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | USD | High |
| 12:40 GMT | Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks | USD | Medium |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Natural Gas Storage | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1522 | Neutral, volatile | U.S. PPI; firm dollar |
| GBP/USD | 1.3488 | Neutral, volatile | Resilient UK GDP |
| USD/JPY | 159.33 | Neutral, volatile | Fed-BOJ rate outlook |
| USD/CHF | 0.8140 | Mildly bullish | Dollar and haven demand |
| AUD/USD | 0.7053 | Neutral | Hawkish RBA support |
| NZD/USD | 0.5829 | Bearish | Lower inflation expectations |
| GBP/JPY | 215.05 | Neutral, volatile | UK growth; BOJ bets |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2100 | Bullish | Diverging inflation outlooks |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $83.11 | Neutral, volatile | Large inventory build |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $88.87 | Neutral, volatile | Demand cuts; Hormuz risk |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.79 | Neutral | Heat demand; strong supply |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,374.03 | Neutral, bullish | Lower Fed hike probability |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $64.73 | Neutral | Profit-taking after rally |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,844.65 | Bullish, volatile | AI memory-chip rally |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 68,601.21 | Bullish | Chip earnings optimism |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1480 | 1.1570 | PPI directs range break |
| GBP/USD | 1.3430 | 1.3550 | Hold support preserves recovery |
| USD/JPY | 158.20 | 160.00 | Break risks intervention response |
| USD/CHF | 0.8090 | 0.8190 | Above resistance confirms strength |
| AUD/USD | 0.7000 | 0.7110 | RBA support must hold |
| NZD/USD | 0.5780 | 0.5890 | Below support extends weakness |
| GBP/JPY | 213.50 | 216.50 | BOJ expectations control breakout |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2040 | 1.2160 | Hold 1.2040 favors buyers |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $81.50 | $85.00 | Inventories limit upside |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $87.00 | $91.00 | Hormuz headlines set direction |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.70 | $2.90 | Storage data guides breakout |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,320 | $4,450 | PPI reaction confirms trend |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $63.00 | $66.50 | Hold support preserves momentum |
| KOSPI | 6,650 | 7,000 | Chip rally must consolidate |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 67,500 | 70,000 | Breakout extends AI rally |
Trader’s Takeaway
U.S. PPI and jobless claims are the decisive catalysts after mild CPI reduced Fed hike expectations. Watch GBP/USD around 1.3430, USD/JPY near 160.00, and whether oil holds despite weaker demand projections. Softer producer prices would favor gold and equities, while an upside surprise could restore dollar momentum.
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