Date: 26.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite is cautiously constructive as hopes for renewed Iran-Oman talks pull oil and government-bond yields lower, helping Asian equities recover. The Australian dollar is outperforming after trimmed-mean inflation reached 3.6%, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need tighter policy. However, the tone remains fragile before U.S. core PCE inflation and revised growth data, while Nvidia’s earnings create significant cross-market risk for technology shares. The dollar is steady near recent lows, and gold remains close to a three-month high as traders balance softer yields against event risk.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street advanced Tuesday as lower oil and Treasury yields supported growth shares. The Dow gained 0.30%, the S&P 500 rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq added 0.66%. Nvidia climbed 2.2%, while U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Australia’s trimmed-mean inflation accelerated to 3.6%, lifting AUD/USD to a three-month high.
- Brent fell below $87 as Iran-Oman diplomacy raised hopes for improved Strait of Hormuz traffic.
- Expectations for a September BOJ increase kept USD/JPY below 159 despite firm risk appetite.
- Asian semiconductor shares advanced before Nvidia’s results, with substantial volatility expected.
- Gold held near a three-month high before core PCE inflation.
Forex Focus of the Day
AUD/USD is Wednesday’s primary Forex focus. Hot Australian underlying inflation strengthens the RBA’s tightening case, while falling oil and improving Asian sentiment add support. U.S. core PCE provides the opposing catalyst. Holding above 0.7110 preserves momentum toward 0.7250; a support break would signal that U.S. inflation risk or a stronger dollar has overwhelmed the Australian policy advantage.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Core PCE Price Index | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. GDP, Second Estimate | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Durable Goods Orders | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Personal Income and Spending | USD | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Petroleum Status Report | USD | High |
| 15:45 GMT | Federal Reserve Barkin Speech | USD | Medium |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1661 | Neutral, bullish | Soft yields; PCE risk |
| GBP/USD | 1.3631 | Neutral | Steady dollar; event caution |
| USD/JPY | 158.98 | Bearish, volatile | BOJ tightening expectations |
| USD/CAD | 1.3861 | Bullish | Canadian tariffs; weaker oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7183 | Bullish | Hot Australian inflation |
| NZD/USD | 0.5954 | Bearish | RBNZ decision risk |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2056 | Bullish | RBA-RBNZ policy divergence |
| EUR/JPY | 185.60 | Neutral, volatile | ECB and BOJ repricing |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $80.83 | Bearish, volatile | Hormuz diplomacy; inventories |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $86.41 | Bearish, volatile | Iran-Oman talks |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.80 | Slightly bullish | Weather demand; supply balance |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,630.72 | Neutral, bullish | Lower yields; PCE caution |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $68.81 | Slightly bullish | Metals demand; softer yields |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,866.14 | Bullish, volatile | Nvidia and semiconductor positioning |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 66,262.16 | Bullish | Lower oil; technology strength |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 | 1.1720 | PCE determines range break |
| GBP/USD | 1.3550 | 1.3700 | Support preserves recovery |
| USD/JPY | 157.80 | 160.00 | BOJ risk caps resistance |
| USD/CAD | 1.3780 | 1.3950 | Oil and tariffs favor upside |
| AUD/USD | 0.7110 | 0.7250 | Inflation supports dips |
| NZD/USD | 0.5900 | 0.6020 | RBNZ expectations control break |
| AUD/NZD | 1.1980 | 1.2100 | Policy divergence supports trend |
| EUR/JPY | 184.50 | 187.00 | Central-bank signals set direction |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $79.00 | $83.00 | Inventories test bearish momentum |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $84.50 | $89.00 | Diplomacy caps recovery |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.72 | $2.90 | Weather controls breakout |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,580 | $4,700 | PCE guides breakout attempt |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $67.50 | $70.00 | Support preserves momentum |
| KOSPI | 6,700 | 7,000 | Nvidia results set direction |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,500 | 67,000 | Trend positive above support |
Trader’s Takeaway
U.S. core PCE is the dominant scheduled catalyst, while Nvidia’s results pose cross-market volatility risk. AUD/USD above 0.7110 confirms Australian policy support, Brent below $89 maintains the correction, and gold above $4,580 preserves haven demand. KOSPI and JPN225 must hold support for constructive risk appetite.
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