Date: 27.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautiously constructive after Nvidia’s record quarterly revenue and strong forecast lifted global semiconductor shares. However, hotter U.S. inflation has strengthened expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, keeping Treasury yields elevated and the dollar supported before the Jackson Hole symposium. Oil is extending its decline as Iran, Qatar, and Oman pursue talks aimed at easing disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold remains firm on fiscal and geopolitical concerns, while the Bank of Korea’s second consecutive rate increase highlights increasingly divergent global policy paths.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street finished marginally lower Wednesday after annual U.S. PCE inflation reached 3.7%. The Dow fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.02%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.08%. Nvidia declined 1.6% before reporting record quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion and an upbeat outlook after the closing bell. Oil settled lower, while gold retreated from a three-month high.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar held near an eight-day high as persistent inflation increased Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations.
- Nvidia’s results and growth forecast lifted Asian semiconductor shares and U.S. equity futures.
- The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% and upgraded its growth forecast.
- WTI and Brent extended multi-session declines as Middle East diplomatic efforts reduced immediate supply fears.
- Gold recovered above $4,600 as fiscal concerns offset pressure from higher rate expectations.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is Thursday’s principal Forex focus. The pair remains close to 159.30 as firm U.S. inflation supports Treasury yields, while the Bank of Japan continues signaling concern about upside price risks. Holding below 160.00 would preserve intervention and BOJ-tightening pressure. A sustained break higher would instead confirm that U.S. yield support remains dominant before Friday’s Federal Reserve address.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 GMT | Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision | KRW | High |
| 02:10 GMT | Bank of Korea Press Conference | KRW | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | USD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance | USD | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Natural Gas Storage Report | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1655 | Neutral | Firm dollar; Jackson Hole caution |
| GBP/USD | 1.3586 | Slightly bearish | Higher U.S. rate expectations |
| USD/JPY | 159.30 | Neutral, volatile | U.S. yields; BOJ expectations |
| USD/CAD | 1.3839 | Bullish | Trade tension; weaker oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7180 | Bullish | Inflation; technology optimism |
| NZD/USD | 0.5942 | Neutral, bearish | Policy divergence |
| EUR/JPY | 185.67 | Neutral, volatile | BOJ repricing; yield spreads |
| AUD/JPY | 114.42 | Bullish, volatile | Asian technology demand |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $81.10 | Bearish, volatile | Hormuz diplomacy |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $86.77 | Bearish, volatile | Iran-Qatar-Oman talks |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.92 | Bullish, volatile | Hot weather; storage report |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,611.16 | Neutral, bullish | Fiscal concern; policy risk |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $69.27 | Bullish, volatile | Precious-metals demand |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,912.37 | Bullish, volatile | Nvidia results; BOK increase |
| Nvidia | $209.66 | Bullish, volatile | Record revenue; strong forecast |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 | 1.1720 | Data must break consolidation |
| GBP/USD | 1.3520 | 1.3650 | Resistance favors dollar strength |
| USD/JPY | 158.00 | 160.00 | Intervention risk caps upside |
| USD/CAD | 1.3770 | 1.3920 | Weak oil supports advance |
| AUD/USD | 0.7110 | 0.7250 | Support preserves momentum |
| NZD/USD | 0.5900 | 0.6020 | Resistance limits recovery |
| EUR/JPY | 184.50 | 187.00 | BOJ expectations guide break |
| AUD/JPY | 113.50 | 115.20 | Risk appetite supports dips |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $79.00 | $83.50 | Diplomacy sustains pressure |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $85.00 | $89.00 | Talks cap rebounds |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.82 | $3.05 | Storage determines breakout |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,550 | $4,700 | Fiscal demand protects support |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $67.50 | $71.00 | Momentum positive above support |
| KOSPI | 6,800 | 7,000 | Chip demand tests resistance |
| Nvidia | $202 | $220 | Earnings reaction controls breakout |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is a renewed rise in U.S. yields before Friday’s Federal Reserve address. Jobless claims and trade data provide today’s immediate dollar catalysts. USD/JPY below 160.00, gold above $4,550, and AUD/USD above 0.7110 preserve existing themes. Continued weakness below $89 in Brent would support technology-sensitive equities, while KOSPI must clear 7,000 to confirm stronger regional momentum.
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