Date: 23.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautiously constructive as Saudi Arabia restarts its East-West pipeline and U.S.–Iran diplomacy pushes Brent below $100, easing immediate inflation pressure. Asian technology shares remain supported by AI demand, although Hong Kong stocks are softer and global bond yields still reflect further Federal Reserve tightening. Eurozone business activity accelerated sharply in September, led by German services, but the euro remains under pressure near $1.143 as the dollar’s rate advantage dominates. Today’s UK and U.S. PMIs, crude inventories, and central-bank commentary may determine whether the relief extends.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street finished mixed Tuesday. The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.5% to another record. Brent stayed below $100 as Saudi export capacity improved, while the dollar strengthened against the euro and yen.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline at a reduced rate, improving Red Sea export prospects.
- Trump described U.S.–Iran discussions as productive, reinforcing oil-supply relief.
- Eurozone composite PMI jumped to 53.1 from 52.0, beating expectations.
- USD/JPY advanced toward 158 despite last week’s BOJ rate increase.
- KOSPI rose as Samsung and other semiconductor shares extended AI-led gains.
Forex Focus of the Day
EUR/USD is Wednesday’s central Forex focus. Strong German and eurozone PMIs have not overcome the dollar’s yield advantage, leaving the pair near 1.1430. Holding 1.1380 could support a recovery toward 1.1500, especially if U.S. PMIs soften. A sustained break below support would confirm that rate differentials outweigh Europe’s improving activity data.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:15 GMT | France Flash PMI | EUR | High |
| 07:30 GMT | Germany Flash PMI | EUR | High |
| 08:00 GMT | Eurozone Flash PMI | EUR | High |
| 08:30 GMT | UK Flash PMI | GBP | High |
| 13:45 GMT | U.S. Flash PMI | USD | High |
| 14:05 GMT | Fed Governor Barr Speech | USD | High |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1427 | Bearish, volatile | Strong PMI versus U.S. yields |
| GBP/USD | 1.3316 | Bearish, volatile | UK PMI; dollar strength |
| USD/JPY | 157.59 | Bullish, volatile | Rate gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8216 | Neutral, bullish | U.S. rate advantage |
| USD/CAD | 1.4026 | Bullish | Falling oil; firm dollar |
| AUD/USD | 0.7082 | Neutral, bearish | Mixed Asian equities |
| EUR/JPY | 180.05 | Neutral, volatile | Eurozone PMI; weak yen |
| USD/CNH | 6.7000 | Neutral, volatile | Trump-Xi summit positioning |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $89.83 | Bearish, volatile | Diplomacy; inventory risk |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $98.40 | Bearish, volatile | Saudi pipeline restart |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.01 | Bullish | Heat demand; short covering |
| Gold | $4,339 | Neutral, bearish | High yields; haven demand |
| Silver | $65.93 | Neutral, bullish | Industrial demand; rate pressure |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,052.75 | Bullish | Semiconductor and AI demand |
| HK50, Hang Seng | 24,896.04 | Neutral, bearish | Profit-taking before summit |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1380 | 1.1500 | U.S. PMI decides continuation |
| GBP/USD | 1.3260 | 1.3390 | UK PMI must restore support |
| USD/JPY | 156.50 | 159.00 | Intervention risk caps momentum |
| USD/CHF | 0.8160 | 0.8280 | Yields support advances |
| USD/CAD | 1.3960 | 1.4100 | Weak oil favors upside |
| AUD/USD | 0.7030 | 0.7150 | Asian sentiment controls recovery |
| EUR/JPY | 178.80 | 181.50 | PMI strength protects support |
| USD/CNH | 6.6600 | 6.7300 | Summit headlines determine break |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $88.00 | $93.00 | Inventories test downside |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $96.00 | $101.00 | Pipeline flows cap rebounds |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.92 | $3.12 | Heat demand sustains recovery |
| Gold | $4,280 | $4,400 | High yields limit advances |
| Silver | $64.50 | $67.50 | Hold support preserves strength |
| KOSPI | 6,950 | 7,150 | Chip leadership supports gains |
| HK50, Hang Seng | 24,500 | 25,300 | Summit optimism must clear resistance |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is whether diplomacy and restored Saudi flows can keep oil below $100 while global PMIs sustain growth. U.S. data and crude inventories are the main catalysts. EUR/USD below 1.1500 favors the dollar, USD/JPY above 156.50 preserves upside, and Brent below $101 confirms supply relief. KOSPI must hold 6,950 to maintain technology leadership.
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