Date: 28.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is defensive as renewed U.S.–Iran tension lifts oil, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield holds above 5.2%, and the dollar trades near a two-month high. Higher energy costs and yields are intensifying inflation concerns, pressuring precious metals and rate-sensitive equities. The KOSPI fell 2.7% as foreign investors sold semiconductor leaders, while European and U.S. futures weakened. Attention centers on Federal Reserve commentary and Tuesday’s expected RBA increase, leaving markets vulnerable to shifts in policy expectations and Hormuz headlines overall.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street advanced Friday, with the Dow gaining 0.93%, the S&P 500 rising 0.51%, and the Nasdaq adding 0.48%. Brent settled near $97 before weekend geopolitical tension revived its risk premium. The dollar completed another firm week as Treasury yields remained elevated.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar index held near 100.8 as markets increased expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase.
- Washington rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil sharply higher.
- Gold fell about 3% and silver dropped more than 5% as yields and the dollar strengthened.
- KOSPI closed 2.7% lower after heavy foreign selling in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
- The RBA is expected to raise its cash rate to 4.60% Tuesday.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is Monday’s primary Forex focus as elevated U.S. yields support the dollar while intervention concerns limit upside. The pair has retreated toward 156.75 after approaching 158 overnight. Holding 156.00 preserves the broader bullish structure; a break above 158.00 would increase sensitivity to official warnings, while a sustained loss of support would signal that intervention risk is overtaking the yield gap.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 GMT | ECB President Lagarde Speech | EUR | High |
| 12:15 GMT | Fed Vice Chair Bowman Speech | USD | High |
| 13:30 GMT | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | USD | Medium |
| 17:25 GMT | Fed Governor Cook Speech | USD | High |
| 17:30 GMT | Fed President Barkin Speech | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1387 | Bearish | Dollar yields; Lagarde speech |
| GBP/USD | 1.3263 | Bearish | Firm dollar; risk aversion |
| USD/JPY | 156.75 | Bullish, volatile | Yield gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.4153 | Bullish, volatile | Dollar strength versus rising oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.7021 | Neutral, bullish | Expected RBA increase |
| NZD/USD | 0.5665 | Bearish | Firm dollar; risk pressure |
| USD/CNH | 6.7141 | Neutral, bearish | Policy support; trade uncertainty |
| USD/INR | 95.88 | Bullish, volatile | Oil costs; dollar demand |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $94.42 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz shipping risk |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $99.39 | Bullish, volatile | U.S.–Iran tension |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.116 | Bearish | Profit-taking; supply balance |
| Gold | $4,182 | Bearish, volatile | High yields; firm dollar |
| Silver | $61.48 | Bearish, volatile | Yield pressure; liquidation |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,889.74 | Bearish, volatile | 2.7% semiconductor-led decline |
| USDIndex | 100.80 | Bullish | High yields; Fed expectations |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1340 | 1.1450 | Lagarde must restore support |
| GBP/USD | 1.3200 | 1.3330 | Dollar strength caps rebounds |
| USD/JPY | 156.00 | 158.00 | Intervention risk limits upside |
| USD/CAD | 1.4090 | 1.4220 | Oil limits dollar advances |
| AUD/USD | 0.6970 | 0.7080 | RBA expectations protect support |
| NZD/USD | 0.5620 | 0.5730 | Resistance favors sellers |
| USD/CNH | 6.6900 | 6.7400 | Policy signals decide break |
| USD/INR | 95.50 | 96.20 | Oil pressure favors upside |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $92.50 | $97.00 | Hormuz risk protects support |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $97.50 | $102.00 | Diplomacy determines breakout |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.05 | $3.25 | Demand must restore momentum |
| Gold | $4,100 | $4,280 | High yields cap recovery |
| Silver | $60.00 | $64.50 | Resistance favors sellers |
| KOSPI | 6,800 | 7,000 | Chip selling controls direction |
| USDIndex | 100.20 | 101.50 | Fed tone guides breakout |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is renewed energy inflation reinforcing high yields and dollar strength. Federal Reserve speeches are the main scheduled catalysts. USD/JPY above 156.00 preserves its bullish structure, while WTI above $92.50 maintains the supply premium. Gold below $4,280 and KOSPI below 7,000 keep defensive signals active; USDIndex above 100.20 confirms broad dollar support.
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