Date: 29.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment remains defensive as rising oil prices and a U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2% reinforce global inflation and tightening concerns. The dollar is near a two-month high, while the euro and sterling trade close to three-month lows. The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.60%, a 15-year high, but the Australian dollar weakened as markets questioned whether further increases are likely. U.S. labor-demand data, consumer confidence, and Canadian growth now provide the next tests for yields, the dollar, and risk appetite.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street declined Monday as the bond selloff and higher oil pressured valuations. The Dow lost 0.67%, the S&P 500 fell 0.77%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.92%. Gold sank toward a seven-week low, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.25%.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, its fourth increase this year.
- AUD/USD fell below 0.7000 as Governor Michele Bullock signaled hope that current settings may be sufficient.
- The dollar index advanced above 101 as October Federal Reserve increase expectations exceeded 70%.
- Oil extended gains as U.S.–Iran diplomacy remained stalled and Hormuz risks persisted.
- Chinese shares edged higher after authorities pledged stronger countercyclical policy support.
Forex Focus of the Day
AUD/USD is Tuesday’s main Forex focus after the RBA increase. The pair briefly strengthened before falling toward 0.6990 as the decision was fully priced and guidance lacked a clear commitment to further tightening. Holding below 0.7040 keeps pressure directed toward 0.6950. A sustained recovery above resistance would show that Australia’s widening rate advantage is beginning to outweigh the firm dollar and cautious global risk tone.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 GMT | RBA Rate Decision and Statement | AUD | High |
| 12:30 GMT | Canada Monthly GDP | CAD | High |
| 13:00 GMT | U.S. Home Price Indexes | USD | Medium |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. JOLTS Job Openings | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. Consumer Confidence | USD | High |
| 19:00 GMT | Fed Governor Waller Speech | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1349 | Bearish | U.S. yield advantage |
| GBP/USD | 1.3234 | Bearish | Firm dollar; weak risk tone |
| USD/JPY | 157.46 | Bullish, volatile | Yield gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8339 | Bullish | Dollar rates; haven balance |
| USD/CAD | 1.4188 | Bullish, volatile | Canadian GDP versus oil |
| AUD/USD | 0.6987 | Bearish, volatile | RBA guidance; firm dollar |
| AUD/JPY | 110.02 | Bearish, volatile | RBA reaction; risk aversion |
| USD/CNH | 6.7057 | Bearish | Chinese policy support |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $93.14 | Bullish, volatile | Hormuz supply risk |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $98.46 | Bullish, volatile | Stalled U.S.–Iran diplomacy |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.129 | Neutral, bearish | Profit-taking; strong production |
| Gold | $4,165 | Neutral, bearish | High yields versus haven demand |
| Silver | $61.03 | Bearish, volatile | Yield pressure; liquidation |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUS200 | 8,709.3 | Neutral | RBA increase; bank resilience |
| USDIndex | 101.11 | Bullish | High yields; Fed expectations |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1325 | 1.1410 | U.S. data controls breakdown |
| GBP/USD | 1.3180 | 1.3300 | Resistance favors sellers |
| USD/JPY | 156.80 | 159.00 | Intervention risk caps advances |
| USD/CHF | 0.8280 | 0.8400 | Yields support upside |
| USD/CAD | 1.4120 | 1.4250 | GDP decides range break |
| AUD/USD | 0.6950 | 0.7040 | RBA reaction favors sellers |
| AUD/JPY | 109.50 | 111.00 | Risk tone controls recovery |
| USD/CNH | 6.6900 | 6.7300 | Policy support favors downside |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $92.00 | $96.50 | Supply risk protects support |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $97.50 | $100.30 | Diplomacy determines breakout |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $3.08 | $3.20 | Demand must restore momentum |
| Gold | $4,100 | $4,250 | High yields cap recovery |
| Silver | $60.00 | $63.00 | Resistance favors sellers |
| AUS200 | 8,650 | 8,800 | RBA guidance limits conviction |
| USDIndex | 100.50 | 101.50 | Labor data tests advance |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is that elevated oil and yields extend the global tightening cycle. U.S. labor demand and Canadian GDP are today’s key catalysts. AUD/USD below 0.7040 preserves its post-RBA weakness, while USD/CAD above 1.4120 favors upside. Brent above $97.50 retains its supply premium, and USDIndex above 100.50 confirms broad dollar control.
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